David Archibald
Peak Oil should take place in 2005. Then the tight oil boom started and the civilization party lasted another 20 years. This boom started in North Dakota, but reached its full flower in the Perm basin of Texas. However, a district in Texas suggests that the party is over. Howard County's decline in production is faster than his increase:
Figure 1: Howard County Oil and Gas Production
Gas production is converted into barrels in the fagter of oil with 6,000 cubic feet gas per barrel of oil in barrels. Production reached its peak 18 months ago in July 2023.
In the meantime, the entire oil production in Texas continued to increase:
Figure 2: The 11 largest oil producers in Texas and the overall production in Texas
The explanation for Howard County's departure from the package can be found in the following diagram of the development of the ratio of gas production to oil production. In order to have such an abrupt trend change, the meander-shaped increase to a straight decline in oil production accompanies itself from an outbreak of gas-to-oil ratio means that an underlying process takes place nationwide:
Figure 3: Howard County Gas/oil ratio 2010 – 2024
In these tight oil fields, the pressure that drives oil out of the ground comes from a thermal crack of long -chain hydrocarbons. Due to the lack of permeability, the oil generated is enclosed in the rock at higher than hydrostatic pressure. Some methane are also generated and are in the oil in solution. After the pressure in the reservoir has been drilled and fracked and brought into production, the pressure falls in the reservoir and at some point falls below the blistering point where gas comes from a solution and blisters forms. The tiny methane bubbles are slippery than oil and travel through the rock faster. This in turn means that gas is preferred to oil and the pressure drop of the reservoir accelerates in a positive feedback loop.
It seems that the Bubble Point in Howard County was reached in July 2023. Since this trend break, the Howard County's oil production rate has decreased by 150,000 barrels per day or 40% per year:
Figure 4: Howard County Daily Oil and Gas Production
Howard County's oil production tipped into decline 18 months ago, while gas production went sideways. Gas production is now also falling quickly.
The relationship between the gas/oil ratio and the production trend in Howard County also applies to some of the other important production districts in Texas. The methodology can also be used as a prediction tool, starting with Midland County.
Figure 5: Midland County Gas/Oil Ratio 2010 – 2024
The gas/oil ratio in Midland County is not as final as Howard County broke its lower limit.
Figure 6: Midland County Oil and Gas Production 2010 – 2024
Midland County's oil and gas production profiles have been rejected, while the oil production by Howard County went sideways as gas production.
Figure 7: Midland County Daily Oil Production 2010 – 2024
Howard County's decline in production in the past 12 months was 40% or 151,000 barrels per day. The application of a decline of 30% per year to Midland County's production profile leads to a decline in production of 185,000 barrels per day in the next 12 months.
Figure 8: Martin County Gas/Oil Ratio 2010 – 2024
After Midland, Martin County is the second largest oil producing County in Texas. This graphic of the gas/oil ratio of Martin County shows a clear cancellation.
Figure 9: Martin County Oil and Gas Production 2010 – 2024
As can be seen in Midland County's profile, gas production is dismissed from oil production despite falling oil production, with gas production increasing.
Figure 10: Martin County Oil Production 2010 – 2024
After Martin County's oil production has exceeded and the application of an annual decline rate of 30%, production will probably decrease by 190,000 barrels per day in the next 12 months.
Summary
President Trump has undertaken to increase US oil production by three million barrels a day. This is a heroic undertaking, since he is exposed to a decline of half a million barrels per day compared to three counties in Texas alone.
My advice to the president is to talk about a Plutonium breeder reactor -rollout in combination with synthetic fuel production by applying the Bergius process to the country's coal reserves. Energy for electrolysis to produce the necessary hydrogen for the Bergius plants would come from the nuclear reactors. Everyone would be happy that there would be nuclear, hydrogen and coal in one solution.
The election of the president for the energy driver of Chris Wright is particularly promising in that it is invested in a startup by Plutonium Breeder Reactor named Oklo. This indicates that he has a complete understanding of what is needed.
David Archibald is the author of anti -cancer guards in Australia.
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