What the Met Workplace didn't inform you about excessive temperatures – What's happening with it?
By NOT MANY PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
Climate change is causing a dramatic increase in the frequency of temperature extremes and the number of temperature records experienced by the UK.
A new analysis of observations shows that temperature extremes in the UK are most affected by human-caused climate change. This means that on average the UK is experiencing more frequent heatwaves, posing challenges for infrastructure, health and wellbeing.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2024/temperature-extremes-and-records-most-affected-by- United Kingdom-changing-climate
Remember the Met Office's recent claim that we would see a dramatic increase in the frequency of temperature extremes?
As I pointed out at the time, while we have an increasing number of hot days, we also have fewer extremely cold days. The Met Office's claim is therefore simply wrong.
I have now had the opportunity to carry out a comprehensive analysis, which will be included in my forthcoming GWPF report on the State of the Climate.
I took the daily average temperature data from CET since 1961 and extracted the coldest and hottest 5% – that is, days below the 5th percentile and above the 95th percentile.
As suspected, the number of hottest days has increased, although interestingly, apart from 2018, years such as 1975, 1976, 1995 and 2006 have been at similar levels to recent years. The last decade does not seem very different from the 1990s and 2000s, suggesting that we will not see another significant increase. Ultimately, hot days are the result of anticyclonic weather, and the UK's variable, temperate climate mitigates summer-long heatwaves.
However, in addition to the increase in hot days, we are also experiencing a drastic decrease in the number of extremely cold days:
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If we combine hot and cold, there is no trend at all, neither up nor down:
The most extreme years were 1963, 1976, 1983, 1995, 2010 and 2018.
This analysis was easy to do, so why did the Met Office do something similar in its UK climate report this year?
Instead, they have chosen to deliberately mislead the public into believing that the weather in Britain is becoming more extreme.
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