Weekly Local weather and Power Information Roundup #562 • Watts Up With That?

The Week That Was: 2023-08-05 (August 5, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “To know when you know something, and to know when you don’t know, that’s knowledge.”— Confucius, (551–479 BCE) [H/t William Readdy]

Number of the Week: 8.3 billion tons


By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: Part of the report of atmospheric temperature trends by the University of Alabama in Huntsville for July 2023 has been posted with initial comments by Roy Spencer. This is presented but more fully discussed when the comments by John Christy are available.

A summary of some of the advances in understanding the greenhouse effect based on recent physical evidence is given. Also discussed is the hypothesis that some El Niño events can be predicted. The strengths and possible limits of such predictions are discussed.

The US Department of Energy has issued a Strategy and Roadmap for replacing fossil fuels with hydrogen. This will be briefly discussed.


Atmospheric Temperatures: In 1979 Atmospheric scientists Roy Spencer and John Christy developed a method of calculating the bulk atmospheric temperatures from satellite data by using microwave radiation from atmospheric oxygen. Since instruments on satellites wear out, the satellites must be replaced resulting in a dataset that is not homogenous. However, unlike many groups using surface-air temperature measurements, Spencer and Christy have tried to scrupulously calculate a standardization when instruments are changed. Calculations for standardization are not done by many groups reporting temperatures using different methods, such as the infamous hockey-stick when instrument data was placed on tree ring proxy data to imply they measure the same thing the same way. For these reasons, TWTW considers these data to be the premiere temperature record existing.

For July, Roy Spencer reported:

“New Record High Temperatures and a Weird Month

July 2023 was an unusual month, with sudden warmth and a few record or near-record high temperatures.

Since the satellite record began in 1979, July 2023 was:

  • warmest July on record (global average)
  • warmest absolute temperature (since July is climatologically the warmest month)
  • tied with March 2016 for the 2nd warmest monthly anomaly (departure from normal for any month)
  • warmest Southern Hemisphere land anomaly
  • warmest July for tropical land (by a wide margin, +1.03 deg. C vs. +0.44 deg. C in 2017)

These results suggest something peculiar is going on. It’s too early for the developing El Nino in the Pacific to have much effect on the tropospheric temperature record. The Hunga Tonga sub-surface ocean volcano eruption and its ‘unprecedented’ production of extra stratospheric water vapor could be to blame. There might be other record high temperatures regionally in the satellite data, but I don’t have time right now to investigate that.”

Spencer also reports:

“The linear warming trend since January 1979 now stands at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”

This was expected; the June Global Temperature Report by Earth System Science Center at University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) stated:

“A note about the global temperature trend. For several years now the trend has been extremely close to +0.135 °C/decade (it’s at +0.1341 now). In all likelihood we will see that threshold between 0.134 and 0.135 crossed soon, and we shall indicate the global trend is +0.14 °C/decade by rounding up. In truth, the shift will be very slight.”

TWTW will cover the full report when it comes out. See link under Measurement Issues – Atmosphere.


Evidence Update: Long-time reader Martin Stickley inquired whether TWTW has changed its views of the influence of greenhouse gases. TWTW has seen no studies with supporting physical evidence that contradict the findings of AMO Professor William van Wijngaarden and AMO Professor Emeritus William Happer on the basic ways greenhouse gases affect radiation transfer in Earth’s atmosphere and how greenhouse gases like water vapor or carbon dioxide differ from non-greenhouse gases like nitrogen or oxygen. From the abstract on “Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gase Primer” by van Wijngaarden and Happer on March 3, 2023:

Using simple thermodynamics and fluid mechanics, we show that the atmosphere of a planet with sufficiently high concentrations of greenhouse gases must develop a convecting troposphere between the surface and the tropopause altitude. The planet must also develop a non-convecting stratosphere for altitudes above the tropopause. In the simplest approximation of an atmosphere that is transparent to sunlight and has frequency independent opacity for thermal radiation (an infrared gray atmosphere), one can find simple formulas for the tropopause altitude, and for the altitude profiles of pressure and temperature. The troposphere is nearly isentropic [having equal entropy] and the stratosphere is nearly isothermal [having a nearly constant temperature (or internal energy)]. The real atmosphere of the Earth is much more complicated than the simple model, but it does have a troposphere and a stratosphere. Between the surface and the tropopause the entropy per kilogram of real tropospheric air increases slowly with altitude. The entropy increases much more rapidly with altitude in the stratosphere. The stratosphere has a nearly isothermal lower part and a hotter upper part due to absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation by ozone. The thermal opacity of the real atmosphere has a complicated frequency dependence due to the hundreds of thousands of vibration-rotation transitions of its greenhouse molecules. Unlike the simple model where nearly all radiation to space originates at the tropopause altitude, radiation to space from Earth’s real atmosphere originates from both the surface and all altitudes in the troposphere. A small additional amount of radiation originates in the stratosphere. When these complications are taken into account, model calculations of the thermal radiation spectrum at the top of the atmosphere can hardly be distinguished from those observed from satellites.

For a standard atmosphere, van Wijngaarden and Happer (W & H) use the profile of a standardized atmosphere for the midlatitudes, developed by the Air Force in 1986 from the surface to 120 km (394,000 feet). Although the CO2 concentration has changed since 1986 (below 360 to about 420 parts per million (ppm) today, W & H use 400 ppm) the mixing ratios are assumed to have not changed.

Further, TWTW has seen no studies with supporting physical evidence that contradict the essays on Basic Climate Physics including the Planetary Heat Balance by AMO Professor Howard Hayden posted on the SEPP website. Again, these studies rely on the high-resolution transmission molecular absorption database (HITRAN). These data are updated for changing observations of the gases of concern such as water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane. https://hitran.org/

The work of Professor Yim of Hong Kong University on the importance of subsurface geothermal activity, sea mounts, on sea surface temperatures was emphasized by the eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai in the island nation of Tonga in January 2022. For years, Ian Plimer has written that to understand sea surface temperatures we must understand subsurface geological activity. Yim’s work was a significant advance. Unfortunately, too many climate scientists assume that changes in sea surface temperatures come from changes in carbon dioxide concentrations, even when the downwelling of infrared radiation cannot penetrate even to one inch below the surface of the oceans.

On March 3, Cheng-Zhi Zou, et al. of the Satellite Meteorology and Climatology Division of NOAA, published an article in JGR Atmospheres presenting a new version of the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) mid-tropospheric temperature (TMT) time series. This dataset independently verified the work of Spencer and Christy on atmospheric temperature trends and the adjustments they made for satellite orbital drift. Cheng-Zhe, et al, found that “The merged time series produced a global mean TMT trend of 0.092 ± 0.043 K/decade during 1979–2021 and a total tropospheric trend of 0.142 ± 0.045 K/decade after removal of a stratospheric cooling effect in TMT.”

Doing a detailed forensic analysis, Patrick Frank, Scientific Staff Emeritus of SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, concluded that people compiling the global air temperature record do not understand thermometers. The rate or magnitude of climate warming since 1900 is unknowable. He finds that errors and uncertainties are internal to the instruments themselves, in addition to having external errors and uncertainties. There is no justification for assuming these errors cancel each other out.

The work of Geoscientist Tom Gallagher made sense of the massive data published in 2020 from deep sea sediments recording about 67 million years of surface temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations. These sediments tell us that Earth has four major climate stages ranging from Hothouse to Icehouse. Further, carbon dioxide is a bit player in the causes of climate change (warming and cooling). How fortunate we are to live in a brief warm period during Icehouse Earth, which has lasted about 3.5 million years.

Thus, recent advances in physical evidence and interpretation thereof demonstrate that John Tyndall was right when he discovered that water vapor is vital for keeping the land masses sufficiently warm at night to preserve complex life, keep it from freezing. And that evidence continues to compile both from the laboratory and physical observations that the greenhouse effect from both water vapor and carbon dioxide is highly saturated, increasing concentrations cannot significantly increase temperatures. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm?whichyear=2022 for Hayden’s essays, https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2022/TWTW%2010-29-22.pdf for the work by Yim, http://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%204-15-23.pdf for the work of Cheng-Zhi,

http://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%207-1-23.pdf for the paper by Patrick Frank and the July 15, 22, and 29 for the work by Gallagher http://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%207-29-23.pdf


Predicting El Niño? Writing in Judith Curry’s blog, Climate Etc., Javier Vinós states that Canadian scientists Stewart McKinnell and William Crawford correctly predicted the 2015 major El Niño in 2007 using the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle using surface temperature variability in the northeast Pacific. For years scientists have observed that occasionally the sea surface temperatures along the coast of British Columbia become unusually warm. The introduction of the paper states:

In general, these effects are attributed one of three processes, two of which are linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): (1) a downwelling coastal Kelvin wave of tropical origin that propagates northward along the continental margin from its origin in the warm pool near Ecuador [Subbotina et al., 2001; Lluch-Cota et al., 2001; Strub and James, 2002], (2) an atmospheric teleconnection between Southern Oscillation air pressure disturbances in the tropical Pacific and the location and intensity of the Aleutian Low Pressure system [Emery and Hamilton, 1985; Subbotina et al., 2001] that enhances poleward advection of heat in the atmosphere and in the sea via the seasonal Davidson Current, and (3) low-frequency variability associated with decadal/basin scale SST patterns [Mantua et al., 1997; Mantua and Hare, 2002; Bond et al., 2003]. These mechanisms have yet to be reconciled with the apparent regularity of the bidecadal frequency that appears in many western North American air and SST records [Chao et al., 2000; Thejll, 2001]. Our study explores the hypothesis that some temperature anomalies in the northeastern Pacific, even some of those currently attributed to ENSO, were influenced by the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle (LNC).

The abstract states:

The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle (LNC) is a significant feature of winter (January) air and sea temperatures along the North American west coast over a 400-year period. Yet much of the recent temperature variation can also be explained by wind patterns associated with the PNA teleconnection. At Sitka, Alaska, (57°N) and nearby stations in northern British Columbia, the January PNA index accounts for over 70% of average January air temperatures in lengthy meteorological records. It appears that the LNC signal in January air temperatures in this region is not independent of the PNA, but is a component of it. The Sitka air temperature record, along with SSTs along the British Columbia coast and the PNA index have significant cross-correlations with the LNC that appear at a 2-year lag, LNC leading. The influence of the PNA pattern declines in winter with decreasing latitude but the LNC component does not. It appears as a significant feature of long-term SST variation at Scripps Pier and the California Current System. The LNC also appears over centennial-scales in proxy temperatures along western North America. The linkage of LNC-moderated surface temperatures to processes involving basin-scale teleconnections expands the possibility that the proximate mechanism may be located remotely from its expression in the northeast Pacific. Some of the largest potential sources of a diurnal tidal signal in the atmosphere are located in the western Pacific; the Sea of Okhotsk and the Indonesian archipelago.

Vinós goes through details of using the Moon as a predictor of strong El Niños. He concludes:

“Based on the available data, the authors suggest that the coincidence between the North American coastal sea surface temperature response to the lunar nodal cycle and El Niño events deserves greater attention, particularly if a strong El Niño occurs around 2015.

“Given the challenges associated with predicting the occurrence of an El Niño event, let alone its magnitude, it is truly remarkable that the authors were able to successfully predict a major El Niño eight years in advance. Even more amazing is the fact that this prediction was based on the 18.6-year lunar cycle. It is recommended that anyone involved in ENSO forecasting take into account the accumulated knowledge of the Moon’s influence on ENSO. While not a hard and fast rule, it is apparent that the likelihood of a major El Niño event, or even successive Niño episodes, is higher for 2034. Such an event could potentially mitigate the expected cooling trend.”

Vinós also states:

“McKinnell and Crawford also observed a remarkable synchronization between the lunar nodal cycle and some of the largest El Niño events of the 20th century, such as those in 1940/41, 1957/58, and 1997/98. Attributing the cause of El Niño solely to the Moon would be inaccurate, as there are instances (e.g., 1972/73, 1982/83) when El Niño events do not align with the nodal cycle.”

Here one must recall that working separately, years ago before they teamed together in WeatherBell LLC, Joe D’Aleo and Joe Bastardi developed the concept that there are different types of El Niños. The traditional one applies to a weakening of the trade winds off Peru, South America, resulting in a warming of the eastern Pacific. The other occurs in the central Pacific. It may be the result of subsurface geothermal activity such as demonstrated by the major eruption in Tonga. Both have a significant, temporary influence world-wide. There is much we do not understand about changing climate and it is too easy to jump to unwarranted conclusions. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.


Hydrogen Roadmap: Hydrogen is the lightest element. It readily combines with other elements such as oxygen to produce water. According to the US Energy Information Administration: (some details omitted):

“The two most common methods for producing hydrogen are steam-methane reforming and electrolysis (splitting water with electricity). Researchers are exploring other hydrogen production methods, or pathways.

“Steam-methane reforming accounts for nearly all commercially produced hydrogen in the United States. Commercial hydrogen producers and petroleum refineries use steam-methane reforming to separate hydrogen atoms from carbon atoms in methane (CH4). In steam-methane reforming, high-temperature steam (1,300°F to 1,800°F) reacts with methane in the presence of a catalyst to produce hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and a relatively small amount of carbon dioxide (CO2).

“Industrial facilities and petroleum refineries primarily use natural gas as the methane source for hydrogen production. Several fuel cell power plants in the United States treat and use landfill gas (biogas) as hydrogen source. Biofuels and petroleum fuels are also potential hydrogen sources.

“Electrolysis is a process that splits hydrogen from water using an electric current. Electrolysis is commonly used in high school science classes to demonstrate chemical reactions and hydrogen production. On a large, commercial scale, the process may be referred to as power-to-gas, where power is electricity and hydrogen is gas. Electrolysis itself does not produce any byproducts or emissions other than hydrogen and oxygen. The electricity for electrolysis is currently provided by the electric power grid, which is supplied with a mix of renewable sources, nuclear energy, and fossil fuels.”

According to transportation fuels consulting firm Stillwater Associates:

“In 2021, hydrogen retailed $8.50/kg to $10.80/kg higher than gasoline prices matching the same fuel cost per mile for hybrids or conventional gasoline vehicles respectively. Hydrogen has been used commercially for over 80 years, so it is well developed. Stillwater Associates knows of no research or pending breakthroughs sufficient to bridge hydrogen’s two to three times higher fuel cost compared to gasoline vehicles.”

According to the DOE U.S. “National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap” a major strategy is to reduce the production costs of hydrogen to $2 per kg by 2026 and $1 per kg by 2031 and reduce storage to $9 per kg by 2030 and delivery and dispensing costs to $2 per kg by 2030. There is no demonstration project showing any of this is feasible. It appears to be another US energy fairy tale that may turn grim, See links under Subsidies and Mandates Forever, https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/hydrogen/production-of-hydrogen.php#:~:text=The%20two%20most%20common%20methods,hydrogen%20production%20methods%2C%20or%20pathways. for US EIA analysis and https://stillwaterassociates.com/how-does-the-cost-of-hydrogen-stack-up-against-gasoline/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20hydrogen%20retailed%20%248.50,so%20it%20is%20well%20developed. for Stillwater Associates estimates.


Additions and Corrections: Last week TWTW poorly stated the influence of stratospheric ozone and water vapor on temperature. It should have checked the paper by van Wijngaarden and Happer discussed above. In the midlatitudes, CO2 concentrations exceeds that of H2O at altitudes above about 9 km because water vapor turns to ice crystals at the low temperature there, effectively keeping H2O from ascending further. In the midlatitudes, the concentration of ozone slightly exceeds that of water vapor at an altitude between about 20 km (66,000 ft) and 40 km (131,000 ft). However, the concentration of carbon dioxide exceeds both at these altitudes. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.


Number of the Week: 8.3 billion tons. According to the Coal Market Update, July 2023, by the International Energy Agency (IEA) total world production of coal hit a record high in 2022 of 8.3 billion tons. This year world production is exceeding that of 2022. The rants by the UN Secretary General have no effect on energy hungry Asia. See links under Return of King Coal?


Government’s Collusion With Social Media Is Worse Than You Realize

By Greg Salsbury, American Thinker, Aug 4, 2023


Founder says CIA & FBI control Wikipedia and made it “the most biased encyclopedia.”

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug  5, 2023

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

CCR II: Fossil Fuels

Download with no charge:


Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015


Download with no charge:


Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008


Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gas Primer

By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, March 3, 2023


AFGL Atmospheric Constituent Profiles

By G.P. Anderson, et al, Air Force Geophysics Laboratory, Project 7670, May 15, 1986

A Brief History of Climate, From Prehistory to The Imaginary Crisis of the 21st Century

By Robert Girouard, WUWT, Aug 2, 2023

“Since appearing in Africa a few hundred thousand years ago, Sapiens has had to contend with climatic changes of a magnitude and severity far beyond the benign warming we’ve experienced since the end of the Little Ice Age.”

Another Climate Scientist with Impeccable Credential Break Ranks: “Out Models Are Mickey-Mouse Mockeries of the Real World.”

By Cap Allon, Electroverse Info, Apr 28, 2023 [H/t Paul Homewood]

[SEPP Comment: TWTW discussed noted modeler Mototaka Nakamura several times, such as Jan 29, 2022.]

The 2015 major El Nino was predicted years in advance using a lunar cycle

By Javier Vinós, Climate Etc. July 18, 2023

Link to main paper: The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and surface temperature variability in the northeast Pacific

By Stewart M. McKinnell, William R. Crawford, Journal of Geophysical Research, Oceans, Feb 2, 2007


200 Years of Fossil Fuels and Climate Change (1900-2100)

By G. Shanmugam, Journal of The Geological Society of India, Via CO2 Coalition, Aug 1, 2023

From abstract: “The geologic record shows that the Earth’s climate has always been changing naturally during the past 600 million years in terms of CO2 and temperature, without CO2 emissions from Fossil Fuels by humans. There were both warming and cooling periods prior to the appearance of human beings on the Planet Earth.”

Defending the Orthodoxy

Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System

A Princeton University and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Collaboration

The Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System (CIMES) is a collaboration between Princeton University and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to carry out research in earth system sciences.


IPCC elects Jim Skea as the new Chair

By Staff, IPCC, July 26, 2023 [H/t Myron Ebell]


According to Wikipedia: He has held an appointment as Professor of Sustainable Energy at Imperial College London’s Centre for Environmental Policy since 2009.

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

Climate change made July hotter for four out of five people on Earth: study

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Aug 2, 2023

Link to report: Worldwide daily fingerprints of climate change during Earth’s hottest month: More than 6.5 billion people—81% of the global population—experienced climate change-attributed heat in July 2023.

By Staff, Climate Central, Aug 1, 2023

[SEPP Comment: According to the red map, it was really hot in the tropics and the deserts.]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

“at least a quarter of today’s global warming”

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 4, 2023

“The UN says that methane causes ‘at least a quarter of today’s global warming.’”

“I ran the RRTM radiative transfer model using their mid-latitude-summer model, and found that removing all CH4 from the atmosphere reduced downwelling longwave radiation at earth’s surface from 348.6012 W/m² to 348.0023 W/m². Methane is responsible for less than 0.2% of the total greenhouse effect.”

‘Elites’ Cannot Hide from the Consequences of Their Actions

By J.B. Shurk, American Thinker, Aug 3, 2023 [H/t John Dunn]


[SEPP Comment: Political label is not important, only the common attitude of the group or Hubris.]

Wasting Time with Climate Science?

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Aug 1, 2023

Energy and Environmental Review: July 31, 2023

By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, July 31, 2023

Change in US Administrations

Biden calls climate change an ‘existential threat’

By AFP Staff Writers, Washington (AFP), July 27, 2023


How to powerfully and accurately criticize the Biden Administration’s energy policies

It is crucial to have powerful criticisms of President Biden’s terrible energy policies, as they are an existential threat to our country. But we must avoid inaccurate criticisms.

By Alex Epstein, His Blog, Aug 3, 2023


“However, it is also crucial that this not be pursued by inaccurate, easy-to-refute claims that serve to undercut accurate criticisms.

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Plans to plant billions of trees threatened by massive undersupply of seedlings

By Staff Writers, Burlington VT (SPX), Aug 01, 2023


Link to paper: A lack of ecological diversity in forest nurseries limits the achievement of tree-planting objectives in response to global change

By Peter W Clark, et al. BioScience, July 31, 2023


[SEPP Comment: Then, where to plant? Washington. DC, Sahara, Antarctica?]

Seeking a Common Ground

A Stunningly Good Wildfire Forecast

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Aug 1, 2023


Model Issues

New Study: Climate Models Mired In ‘Terra Incognita’ – Lack The Resolution To Model Climate Change

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 3, 2023

Link to paper: The First 30 Years of GEWEX

By Graeme Stephens, et al. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society


From the abstract: “The Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) project was created more than 30 years ago within the framework of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)”

From text: (Richard) “It is well established in climate science that water (1) ‘exerts a fundamental influence on the physical climate system and on climate change,’ (2) clouds ‘control the planetary albedo and the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface,’ and (3) ‘ocean circulation…determines and modulates the climate of many regions of the world.’”

From text: We can anticipate progress over the next 5–10 years on the challenge expressed by Morel because of major opportunities in observations, computing, modeling, artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML), and emerging partnerships.

“(i)New observations, both in situ and from space, will reveal new understanding of processes in Earth’s energy, water, and carbon cycles and identify where progress is still lacking. This will come from the expansion of the Earth observing systems, including the Sentinel program of the ESA, NASA’s designated observables identified as priorities for the coming decade (NAS 2018) and the sustained and enhanced observations from operational observing systems that collectively establish the program of record (PoR).”

The Problem with Modelling

By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Aug 4, 2023


[SEPP Comment: Problems with Linear No-Threshold (LNT) modeling. Drinking a glass of clean water can kill you. And other tricks being used.]

Measurement Issues — Surface

Heat Forecast Tools

By Staff, National Weather Service, Accessed Aug 2, 2023


“The Heat Index is a measure of how hot it really feels when relative humidity is factored in with the actual air temperature. … As an example, if the air temperature is 96°F and the relative humidity is 65%, the heat index–how hot it feels–is 121°F. The red area without numbers indicates extreme danger. The National Weather Service will initiate alert procedures when the Heat Index is expected to exceed 105°-110°F (depending on local climate) for at least 2 consecutive days.”

Both thumbs on the scale

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 2, 2023

“And so in addition to this mysterious ‘heat index’ where it’s suddenly 150°F instead of 100, or would be if pigs had wings and they melted like those of Icarus, we’re suddenly getting land surface temperature instead of the traditional ‘ambient temperature’ around head level. It’s not level-headed.’

“Heat index, the U.S. National Weather Service explains, is ‘a measure of how hot it really feels when relative humidity is factored in with the actual air temperature.’ And it might be useful in some ways though we’re always suspicious of things like ‘wind chill’ where it turns out one mile per hour happens to translate into one degree C. Or kilometre per hour.”

Houston Recognizes They Have a Problem, the UHI.

By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, July 27, 2023

Link to study: Impacts of Small-Scale Urban Encroachment on Air Temperature Observations

Ronald D. Leeper, et al. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, June 1, 2019


From Abstract: “These results suggest that small-scale urban encroachment within 50 m of a station can have important impacts on daily temperature extrema (maximum and minimum) with the magnitude of these differences dependent upon prevailing environmental conditions and sensing technology.”

From Watts: “Extrapolating from the U.S. data, on average, urban heat islands increase the global surface temperature trend by almost 50 percent.”

Climate Fakery Part 19

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 2, 2023

“NOAA and NASA have altered the US temperature data to turn a long-term cooling trend into a warming trend. In this video I explain the data tampering being done to hide the decline in US temperatures.”

Measurement Issues — Atmosphere

UAH Global Temperature Update for July 2023: +0.64 deg. C

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 2, 2023

Changing Weather

The Northern Washington Coast Had Their Warmest July on Record, But the Rest of the Region Did Not. Why?

July 2023 was a mixed bag regarding temperature across the U.S.

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Aug 3, 2023


Canada wildfire emissions more than double previous annual pollution record

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Aug 3, 2023

Link to report: A record-breaking boreal wildfire season

By Staff, Copernicus, Aug 3, 20023


[SEPP Comment: The data in the graphs go back to only 2003, the Canadian National Fire Database go back to only 1980. Also, the Canadian data does not include forests in Siberia.] https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/ha/nfdb

Germans Will Need To Turn On Heat As Cold, Wet Weather Sets To Grip Country In Early August

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 29, 2023

Most of 667 Greek fires were lit by arsonists, not by your beef-steak, air-conditioner or SUV

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 30, 2023

Changing Seas

Clintel Report: Hiding the decline in the deep blue sea

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 2, 2023

“In this week’s entry in our review of the Clintel analysis of the recent IPCC report we look at Ole Humlum’s chapter on sea level trends. We like having a bit of fun ourselves on the sea level topic. And evidently Humlum does too because he compares simple extrapolation of past trends in Scandinavian sea levels with projections in the IPCC report and it’s one of those things that has to be seen to be disbelieved.”

The Guardian’s (ocean) circulation problem

By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Aug 1, 2023

“Is there no loyalty among climate extremists? The Guardian makes a mistake about the fundamental difference between the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and suddenly everyone is on its case, some accusing it of sloppy reporting, others demanding a correction of its fake news, (which didn’t come.) To be fair it wasn’t just the Guardian – the BBC, CNN and others also got it wrong.”

Great Barrier Reef: A Story of Activist Histrionics and Genuine Progress

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Aug 1, 2023

The Great Barrier Reef will not be recommended for inclusion on the “in danger” list this year by the United Nation’s world heritage body.

Ocean Warming Mystery: Two Natural Factors

By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, July 30, 2023

Salty News From An Old Salt

By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Aug 1, 2023

[SEPP Comment: The graph on “Change in Average Global Sea Surface Salinity Monthly Data, 1900-2019” is revealing.]

Two More Studies Indicate Mid-Holocene Sea Levels Were 2-6 Meters Higher Than Present

By Kenneth Richard, NO Tricks Zone, July 31, 2023

Link to second study: Relationship between depositional environments and preservabilities of Holocene tsunami deposits on the Hidaka coast, Hokkaido, Japan

By Ryo Nakanishi, et al, Quaternary Science Advances, April 2023


California winter waves may be boosted by climate change, imperiling fragile coast

By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Aug 1, 2023

Link to paper: Climate-Induced Decadal Ocean Wave Height Variability From Microseisms: 1931–2021

By Peter D. Bromirski, JGR Oceans, Aug 1, 2023


[SEPP Comment: The “fragile” coast has been “imperiled” for thousands of years.]

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Japanese Antarctic Showa Station Has Been Cooling Over The Past 40 Years

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 2, 2023

[SEPP Comment: On the large East Antarctica, not the smaller West Antarctica that has ice shelves over sea mounts, undersea volcanoes.]

Repeat of 2013 high-profile Sierra Club polar bear attack, this time with Inuit victims

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, July 30, 2023

Lowering Standards

BBC still playing fast and loose with climate facts

Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Aug 2, 2023

Link to: Tall climate tales from the BBC

By Paul Homewood, Net Zero Watch, 2023

From the conclusions: “And who is editing this fake reporting? Why are they not insisting on accurate reporting? Where are the highly paid executives, who let all of this continue? It is apparent that nothing has changed in the last 12 months.”

The Express Covers My New BBC Paper

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 4, 2023

German DWD National Weather Service Declares Near Normal July As “Too Warm, Wet And Sunny”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 4, 2023

“With a 230 hours of sunshine, July was normal. The mean of the 1991 to 2020 reference period is 225 hours of sunshine. The eastern parts of the country reported the most sunshine hours (>250 hours).”

Semi-apology from CDN

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 2, 2023

“That part was accurate, but we failed to warn readers that like many prominent science journals, when The Lancet publishes studies on climate change they are prone to including highly manipulated graphs that misrepresent the data to make it look scarier than it really is. We are grateful to Bjorn Lomborg who spotted the scam this time, and we apologize for trusting The Lancet and would like to take this opportunity to correct the record.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

The media’s climate fearmongering doesn’t help anyone

By Vijay Jayaraj, The Hill, Aug 1, 2023 [H/t ICECAP]

What NASA and the European Space Agency are admitting but the media are failing to report about our current heat wave

By Tom Lieson, American Thinker, July 31, 2023


[SEPP Comment: The massive increase in water vapor from Tonga volcanic eruption.]

The era of scalding rhetoric

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 2, 2023

“What is astounding about this rubbish isn’t just that he said it, it’s that one media outlet after another amplifies instead of scrutinizing it.”

Europe weather: How heatwaves could forever change summer holidays abroad

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 31, 2023

“But I loved that bit about how we’re all going to be holidaying on North Sea coasts in future, to get away from the heat!”

More Media Lies About the Texas Electricity Grid

“Solar, wind energy keeping Texas power grids running amid weekslong heat wave”

By David Middleton, WUWT, Aug 1, 2023

[SEPP Comment: To fix a deficient pricing system that favors unreliable generation, the government is proposing to subsidize reliable generation. Perhaps a better idea would be changing the bidding process to require reliable generation over periods than longer than one day?]

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

N. Atlantic ocean temperature sets record high: US agency

By Lucie Aubourg, Washington (AFP) July 28, 2023


“’ “Based on our analysis, the record-high average sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean is 24.9 degrees C,’ or 76.8 Fahrenheit, observed Wednesday, Xungang Yin, a scientist at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, told AFP.”

“The previous record high was recorded in September 2022, at 24.89 degrees Celsius, Yin said.”

[SEPP Comment: NOAA believes it can track sea surface temperatures by satellites within 0.01C. Yet NOAA’s modelers do not believe it can track atmospheric temperatures by satellites at all?]

Calculating Trends From A Single Temperature

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 4, 2023

“Chile recorded a winter temperature of 99F and ‘scientists’ have projected an increasingly warm future from it.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Creating Hysteria Through Fake New

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 2, 2023

Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?

Australians still don’t want to give up steak, cars, gas stoves, or pay much for NetZero

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 1, 2023

“Poll finds $20 a month the tipping point for voter support on net zero.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda

AEP’s Latest Rant

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 2, 2023

“When AEP throws his toys out of the pram, you know the Net Zero agenda is in big trouble!”

Headline: “Britain’s pathetic defeatists are cowering as China runs away with the clean-tech revolution.”

But if the science is settled…

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 2, 2023

“So don’t ask for predictions you can verify. Just believe the yelling. That part is settled.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Protest

Climate extremists go to Woodside CEO’s home to vandalize, intimidate and the ABC is there to help?

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 3, 2023

Expanding the Orthodoxy

Smoke On The Water – As IMO Targets Additional Emissions Reductions, LNG Carriers Play A Role

By Richard Pratt, RBN Energy, Aug 3, 2023


“Cargo ships move more than 80% of the world’s internationally traded goods, making them essential to the global economy, but they’ve traditionally been fueled by heavy fuel oil or marine gasoil, both of which are emissions intensive. With 60,000 or so ships in service, they account for an estimated 2.8% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a percentage the International Maritime Organization (IMO) would like to reduce.”

Treasury Announces New Climate Counselor

Press Release, US Department of the Treasury, July 27, 2023 [H/t David Legates]


“Mr. Zindler will lead the Treasury Climate Hub, report directly to and advise the Secretary on a broad range of climate matters and be charged with leading Treasury’s efforts to facilitate and unlock the financing needed for investments to achieve a net-zero economy at home and abroad. … Treasury’s Climate Hub has been integral to the Department’s historic progress on climate change under Secretary Yellen’s leadership. This includes implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest investment our nation has ever made in addressing climate change and building an inclusive clean energy economy.”

Questioning European Green

Major heat pump supplier attacks plans to replace gas boilers

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 31, 2023

“A major heat pump supplier has attacked SNP-Green plans to use them to replace gas boilers in Scotland, warning parts of the country are too cold for them to work.”

“The multi-millionaire, who owns a heat pump company, also warned they were noisy and only heated water to 54C (129.2F) – less than the 60C recommended by the Health and Safety Executive to kill the legionella bacteria.”

[SEPP Comment: In the US, where heat pumps are used to provide heat and air conditioning, hot water heaters are separate. Green proposals in the UK do not allow for the space requirements for hot water heaters.]

The looming battle over pylons for green energy

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 31, 2023

“Quite apart from the environmental devastation, there is also that cost of more than £50 billion to pay for rewiring Britain. We will all be paying the bill for this in years to come.”

[SEPP Comment: An electricity pylon is a steel lattice tower used to support an overhead power line.]

The beginning of the end of Net Zero?

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 2, 2023

Questioning Green Elsewhere

Eliminating Fossil Fuels Will Produce A Crippling Decline In Human Well-Being

By William Brooks, The Epoch Times, Vai Tyler Durden’s Blog, Aug 3, 2023


Kennedy v Turk

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 2, 2023

“In an embarrassing scene that further underlines the curious mix of certainty and vagueness of climate alarmist policymakers, Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana questioned Deputy U.S. Energy Secretary David Turk on May 23 as to when he thought the United States could reach carbon neutrality and was told 2050. Then he asked how much it would cost and was told ‘So the cost that I focus on even more is all the costs that will happen if we don’t get our act together.’”

[SEPP Comment: Another bureaucrat claiming we must do something without knowing what it would accomplish or how much it will cost but is certain he is right.]

Op-Ed: One Simple Energy Question Devastates ‘Net-Zero’ Pipe Dreams

By Steve Goreham, The Western Journal, July 31, 2023

On the Climate Train to Destruction? Another View (adaptation, not futile mitigation)

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 2, 2023

“‘In business and economic terms, what is physically ‘worse’ [with climate] today is actually better [than in the past]. Thus, I would argue that social justice demands affordable A/C for many more or all rather than mitigation policies that make A/C less affordable or unaffordable.’”

[SEPP Comment: Bradley considers himself to be a classic liberal.]

New York in danger of missing 2030 emissions target: report

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Aug 2, 2023

Link to report: Renewable Electricity in New York State: Review and Prospects

By Staff, New York State Comptroller, Aug 2023


  • Goals “Generate 70 percent of electricity used in New York from renewable sources by 2030;
  • Install six gigawatts of distributed solar electric capacity by 2025; three gigawatts of storage by 2030; and nine gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2035;
  • Reduce energy consumption economy-wide by 54,220 gigawatt hours by 2035;
  • and
  • Eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from the generation of electricity used in New
  • York State by 2040

[SEPP Comment: Temporary solution, stop all electrical power to government buildings. Permanent solution, abandon the state.]

Non-Green Jobs

Kemi Badenoch raises job loss concerns over net zero car ban

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 4, 2023

“’ Kemi Badenoch, the Business Secretary, is pushing Cabinet colleagues to water down net zero rules on electric cars that come into force in January.’”

“The real worry is that they {UK car manufacturers] opt for selling fewer petrol cars, to keep the EV ratio up. The consequence will be that car buyers simply buy foreign imports instead.

The Political Games Continue

Labor Party sells out Australia, panders to the UN, to avoid a naughty reef sticker

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 4, 2023

“The Australian government bragged about getting a six month free-pass from the global UNESCO naughty corner but in reality they were craven patsies to an absurd unaudited, unaccountable foreign committee.”

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

DOE’s Subtle Warning to the IRS: Pending Regulations Threaten Growth of U.S. Hydrogen Industry

By Marty Durbin, Real Clear Energy, August 03, 2023


Link to: U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap

By Staff, DOE, Hydrogen Program, June 2023


[SEPP Comment: Forget the law, forget the costs, we need more subsidies now!]

Record Profits For Drax, As They Maximise Subsidies

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 4, 2023

“In short, biomass is not only a highly polluting way of making electricity, worse than even coal, both in terms of CO2 and real pollutants. It is also extremely expensive.”

[SEPP Comments: Power plant burning of US forests is green?]

EPA and other Regulators on the March

Portable Generators: CPSC/EPA Coming

By Ed Ireland, Master Resource, Aug 1, 2023

Something is terribly wrong with the current direction of federal regulation. Not only are the number and scope of new rules out of control, but many are driven by the blind ambition to ban the use of fossil fuels without regard for the stability of the power grid or the actual health and safety of citizens.

“And now, conservation policies seem to almost bless the virtue of conservation orders and rolling blackouts.”

Energy Issues – Non-US

The public supports Rishi Sunak’s pragmatic new energy policy

Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Aug 1, 2023

“As the incoming head of the IPCC, Professor Jim Skea, said this week, generating a false sense of urgency through talk of ‘climate catastrophe’ helps no one. There is time to think this through carefully and get it right.”

Energy Issues — US

Left Coast Closes the Dam Lights

By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Aug 2, 2023

“The first of four hydroelectric dams along the Oregon-California border has been removed from the main stem of the Klamath River.”

Government and Energy: Witnessing the Process

By Jim Clarkson, Master Resource, Aug 3, 2023

“After over 50 years of observing state utility regulation, it still upsets me to see smart young people devoted to limiting freedom and prosperity when they could be doing something useful. They are not really communists or socialists’ they are just ‘governmentists.” [Boldface added]

Energy Industry Fears White House Will Declare COVID-Like ‘Climate Emergency’

By Jack Phillips, The Epoch Times, July 30, 2023


Abandon Fossil Fuels, Empower China

By Don Ritter, WUWT, Aug 1, 2023

“If the USA and West continue along their anti-fossil-fuel path, it is quite possible that autocratic Producers will soon dominate the world – while China becomes their biggest Consumer and the world’s preeminent player, surpassing even the United States.”

Classical Liberalism and Electricity: First Principles Please

By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, July 27, 2023

[SEPP Comment: Correspondence on whether classic liberalism can apply to the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity.]

Washington’s Control of Energy

U.S. pulls plug on incandescent light bulbs as new ban goes into effect

By Sheri Walsh, Washington DC, (UPI) Aug 2, 2023


“…National Resources Defense Council energy efficiency advocate Joe Vukovich called the ban ‘brilliant news for consumers and the climate.’”

[SEPP Comment: Brilliant news on driving up the cost of lighting homes!]

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

UAE and Other Oil-Rich Countries Want to Keep Producing and Selling Oil No Matter What

By Saman Rizwan, Real Clear Energy, August 02, 2023


“The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has found a solution: sponsor the annual COP28 conference, position itself as a leader in the fight against climate change, and develop high-tech methods to continue enabling the world’s consumption of fossil fuels.”

[SEPP Comment: They kept on producing when the West was claiming that the world was running out – in the 1970s.]

Return of King Coal?

Global coal demand broke records in 2022, more growth expected in 2023

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 30, 2023

Link to press release: Global coal demand set to remain at record levels in 2023

By Staff, IEA, July 27, 2023


Link to report: Coal Market Update – July 2023

By Staff, IEA, July 2023

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Dominion hides huge offshore wind cost risk

By David Wojick, CFACT, July 31, 2023


“I can find no public disclosure of this risk to the public, to investors, or to the Virginia or Federal Authorities that oversee this monster project.”

Renewable energy isn’t as cheap as advertised – so far

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 4, 2023

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

This polluting green sham has been mocking taxpayers for years – but Drax depriving taxpayers of £639 million last year by gaming the subsidy system takes the biscuit

By Ross Clark, The Daily Mail, Aug 2, 2023


Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage

Cobalt Carnage, Child Labor and Ecological Destruction

By Paul Driessen, WUWT, July 31, 2023

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Premature Electrification: Future of Electric Cars

Slide Show by Mark P. Mills, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, Accessed Aug 4, 2023

[SEPP Comment: Switching from internal combustion engines (ICE) to EV, involves abandoning a complex propulsion system with 1000s of parts, in favor of a simple propulsion system; and abandoning a simple fuel system, in favor of a complex electro-chemical one with thousands of parts.]

The potential looming auto industry fiasco

By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Aug 2, 2023 [H/t WUWT]

Unsold Electric Cars May Be Signaling a Death Spiral for the Auto Industry

By Ronald Stein, The Heartland Institute, Aug 1, 2023

Hazardous Electric Car Transport: Fires On Ocean Carriers Causing Environmental Catastrophes

By P Gosselin, NO Tricks Zone, July 30, 2023

[SEPP Comment: Will insurers stop insuring ships carrying EVs?]

Health, Energy, and Climate

The impacts of a warming climate on human health in Ningbo, China

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 2, 2023

From the CO2Science Archive:

Reducing Health Care’s Climate Impact — Mission Critical or Extra Credit?

By Alexander S. Rabin, M.D., and Elizabeth G. Pinsky, M.D., New England Journal of Medicine, Aug 2, 2023


“Worldwide, health sector emissions fuel additional health damage by means of climate change. And pollution from the U.S. health care system alone results in the loss of as many as 388,000 disability-adjusted life-years per year — a disease burden similar to that created by medical errors.”

[SEPP Comment: Based on IPCC reports.]


Social Justice In Boston

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 3, 2023

Link to article: Boston bans use of fossil fuels to power the construction of public buildings

By Joe Quirke, Global Construction Review, Mar 8, 2023


[SEPP Comment: Boston City Hall is a new concrete and steel building!]

Ancient pathogens emerging from melting ice and permafrost risk eroding ecosystems

By Staff Writers, Adelaide, Australia (SPX), Jul 28, 2023


Link to paper; Time-travelling pathogens and their risk to ecological communities

By Giovanni Strona, et al, Plos Computational Biology, July 27, 2023


[SEPP Comment: Ways to fight pathogens are not passed to succeeding generations?]


By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 2, 2023

“We have made fun of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flying hither and yon in private planes for trivial events at which, almost without exception, he warns of carbon pollution causing climate change. But it’s worse than you think, because the planes in question are not your typical tycoon’s private jet fit for you and half a dozen close friends or so but vast Airbus A330s capable of carrying over 200 people (which given the sorts of entourages Canada’s leaders feel obliged to surround themselves with is understandable, up to a point).”

Climate change may cause disruptions to solar generation in the future, modeling suggests

By Ben Knight, University of New South Wales, Tech Xplore, Aug 2, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]


Link to paper: Assessing Australia’s future solar power ramps with climate projections

By Shukla Poddar, et al Scientific Reports, Nature.com, Aug 2, 2023


From the abstract: Using CORDEX-Australasia projections under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios, future solar ramps across Australia have been characterized up to 2100.

[SEPP Comment: But solar change will not?]

Hey, let’s mine the ocean to save the Earth

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 2, 2023

Man Nearly Freezes In The Boiling Oceans

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 3, 2023


1. Climate Change Hasn’t Set the World on Fire

It turns out the percentage of the globe that burns each year has been declining since 2001.

By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, July 31, 2023


TWTW Summary: Lomborg begins:

“One of the most common tropes in our increasingly alarmist climate debate is that global warming has set the world on fire. But it hasn’t. For more than two decades, satellites have recorded fires across the planet’s surface. The data are unequivocal: Since the early 2000s, when 3% of the world’s land caught fire, the area burned annually has trended downward.

In 2022, the last year for which there are complete data, the world hit a new record-low of 2.2% burned area. Yet you’ll struggle to find that reported anywhere.

Instead, the media acts as if the world is ablaze. In late 2021, the New York Times employed more than 40 staff on a project called “Postcards from a World on Fire,” headed by a photorealistic animation of the world in flames. Its explicit goal was to convince readers of the climate crisis’ immediacy through a series of stories of climate-change-related devastation across the world, including the 2019-20 wildfires in Australia.

This summer, the focus has been on Canada’s wildfires, the smoke from which covered large parts of the Northeastern U.S. Both the Canadian prime minister and the White House have blamed climate change.

Yet the latest report by the United Nations’ climate panel doesn’t attribute the area burned globally by wildfires to climate change. Instead, it vaguely suggests the weather conditions that promote wildfires are becoming more common in some places. Still, the report finds that the change in these weather conditions won’t be detectable above the natural noise even by the end of the century.

The Biden administration and the Times can paint a convincing picture of a fiery climate apocalypse because they selectively focus on the parts of the world that are on fire, not the much larger area where fires are less prevalent.

Take the Canadian wildfires this summer. While the complete data aren’t in for 2023, global tracking up to July 29 by the Global Wildfire Information System shows that more land has burned in the Americas than usual. But much of the rest of the world has seen lower burning—Africa and especially Europe. Globally, the GWIS shows that burned area is slightly below the average between 2012 and 2022, a period that already saw some of the lowest rates of burned area.

The thick smoke from the Canadian fires that blanketed New York City and elsewhere was serious but only part of the story. Across the world, fewer acres burning each year has led to overall lower levels of smoke, which today likely prevents almost 100,000 infant deaths annually, according to a recent study by researchers at Stanford and Stockholm University.

Likewise, while Australia’s wildfires in 2019-20 earned media headlines such as “Apocalypse Now” and “Australia Burns,” the satellite data shows this was a selective narrative. The burning was extraordinary in two states but extraordinarily small in the rest of the country. Since the early 2000s, when 8% of Australia caught fire, the area of the country torched each year has declined. The 2019-20 fires scorched 4% of Australian land, and this year the burned area will likely be even less.

That didn’t stop the media from cherry-picking. They ran with a study from the World Wildlife Fund that found the 2019-20 fires impacted—meaning took habitat or food from, subjected to heat stress, killed, or injured, among other things—three billion animals. But this study looked mostly at the two states with the highest burning, not the rest of Australia. Nationally, wildfires likely killed or harmed six billion animals in 2019-20. That’s near a record low; in the early 2000s fires harmed or killed 13 billion animals annually.”

Lomberg discusses some of the false claims made by climate specialists regarding the fires and concludes:

“Surveys repeatedly show that most voters are unwilling to support the very expensive climate policies activists and green politicians have proposed. Overheated headlines about climate Armageddon are an attempt to scare us into supporting them anyway, at the cost of sensible discussion and debate.”


2. Biden’s Summer Regulatory Onslaught

While Congress and the media sleep, new rules remake the American economy.

By The Editorial Board, Aug. 1, 2023


The editorial begins:

“The Biden Administration’s regulatory onslaught is more unrelenting than the heat. With Congress leaving town, the White House last week dumped another truckload of regulations that will cost Americans hundreds of billions of dollars. Corporate lawyers, enjoy the beach reading.

The Transportation Department on Friday proposed a 696-page rule raising corporate average fuel economy (Cafe) standards that would effectively require 100% of new cars to be electric by 2032. This is even more aggressive than California’s EV mandate, which wouldn’t ban the sale of new gas-powered cars until 2035.

Passenger cars would have to achieve 66.4 miles a gallon in 2032, up from 44.1 mpg last year. The ramp-up for trucks and SUVs is even steeper—to 54.4 mpg from 32.1 mpg. Auto makers will have no way to comply but to make more EVs.

Here’s the kicker: The Energy Department is also proposing to reduce the “miles per gallon equivalent” for EVs. For example, the F-150 Lightning’s rating would decline to 67 mpg from 237 mpg. This means auto makers will have to produce even more EVs to meet Cafe mandates. They’ll be fined if they fall short.

A GM presentation to the White House estimated that industry penalties could total $300 billion, or about $4,300 per vehicle, from 2027 to 2031. Consumers and workers will pay the cost, and for what? The Administration claims the proposal will reduce CO2 emissions through 2050 by 885 million metric tons—about half as much as Canada’s wildfires are projected to release this year.

The Administration on Friday also proposed a 236-page revision to National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) guidelines that will require federal agencies to consider climate change and “environmental justice” in project reviews. If a utility wants to build a gas pipeline, agencies might have to evaluate if a solar plant would better promote environmental justice, however regulators define it.

NEPA was intended to protect local environments, but the Administration redefines “environment” to include the purported “global” effects of climate change. “Leases for oil and gas extraction or natural gas pipelines have local effects, but also have reasonably foreseeable global indirect and cumulative effects related to GHG emissions,” the revision states.

A footnote says this NEPA revision accords with the law’s decree that the federal government “assure for all Americans safe, healthful, productive, and esthetically and culturally pleasing surroundings.” The Administration is begging for another legal challenge under the Supreme Court’s major questions doctrine.

The Administration is also quietly using collusive legal settlements with green groups to end-run judicial review of rules—a practice known as “sue and settle.” The Administration on July 21 settled a lawsuit with the Sierra Club by agreeing to remove 11 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico from future oil and gas development to protect the Rice’s whale.

The settlement will also restrict transit for oil and gas vessels—but no other ships—through a long strip where Rice’s whales haven’t even been found. This will make offshore leases less economically viable and undermine provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act that West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin demanded in return for his vote.

Last week Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler jammed through a rule requiring public companies to disclose to investors cyber-security breaches within four days of discovering them—no matter if they are still trying to repair their systems.

As GOP commissioner Hester Peirce noted in dissent, the unprecedented rule could “tell successful attackers when the company finds out about the attack, what the company knows about it, and what the financial fallout is likely to be (i.e., how much ransom the attacker can get)” and “will signal to other would-be attackers an opportune time to attack.”

The rule will give private companies another reason not to go public—in addition to other disincentives the SEC is creating. For instance, the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, a quasi-private entity overseen by the SEC, in June proposed rules that would vastly expand the remit of auditors under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.

Public companies are required to hire external auditors to review their financial statements and accounting. The accounting board wants auditors to identify noncompliance with any regulation or law, whether or not they are financially material. This would vastly expand the scope and cost of audits.”

The editorial concludes that the Washington Press Corps will continue to ignore such actions by the administration.


3. Climate Change Obsession Is a Real Mental Disorder

Alarmist stories about the weather, not the warm air itself, are behind the left’s anxiety and dread.

By Allysia Finley, WSJ, July 30, 2023


TWTW Summary: The columnist begins:

“The media wants you to know it’s hot outside. ‘ ‘Heat health emergency’: Nearly half the US at risk,’ CNN proclaimed last week as temperatures climbed above 90 degrees in much of the country.

If heat waves were as deadly as the press proclaims, Homo sapiens couldn’t have survived thousands of years without air conditioning. Yet here we are. Humans have shown remarkable resilience and adaptation—at least until modern times, when half of society lost its cool over climate change.

‘Extreme Temperatures Are Hurting Our Mental Health,’ a recent Bloomberg headline warns. Apparently every social problem under the sun is now attributable to climate change. But it’s alarmist stories about bad weather that are fueling mental derangements worthy of the DSM-5—not the warm summer air itself.

The Bloomberg article cites a July meta-analysis in the medical journal Lancet, which found a tenuous link between higher temperatures and suicides and mental illness. But the study deems the collective evidence of ‘low certainty’ owing to inconsistent study findings, methodologies, measured variables and definitions. The authors also note that ‘climate change might not necessarily increase mental health issues because people might adapt over time, meaning that higher temperatures could become normal and not be experienced as anomalous or extreme.’

Well, yes. Before the media began reporting on putative temperature records—the scientific evidence for which is also weak—heat waves were treated as a normal part of summer. Uncomfortable, but figuratively nothing to sweat about.

Yet according to a World Health Organization report last year, the very ‘awareness of climate change and extreme weather events and their impacts’ may lead to a host of ills, including strained social relationships, anxiety, depression, intimate-partner violence, helplessness, suicidal behavior and alcohol and substance abuse.”

The columnist gives additional specific examples, then concludes:

“Displacement is a maladaptive mechanism by which people redirect negative emotions from one thing to another. Ms. Tolentino [an author of an article on climate emotions] relates how one patient she interviewed realized through deep reflection that ‘he’d sometimes used climate anxiety as a container for his own, more intimate problems.’

Climate hypochondriacs deserve to be treated with compassion, much like anyone who suffers from mental illness. They shouldn’t, however, expect everyone else to enable their neuroses.”

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