In the article by the Guardian “Carbon emissions of oil giants, which are connected to dozens of deadly heat waves for the first time,” reports Damian Carrington about a study in which it was claimed that the carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) of only 14 large companies with fossil fuels were sufficient to cause more than 50 heat waves that were otherwise virtually impossible. This is wrong. In the past, heat waves were far worse than today and it is impossible to combine a certain heat wave with emissions from a company or a group of companies, since data show no causal connection between emissions and changes in the heat waves.
The piece frames research, which you call a legal turning point, and argue that oil producers are now exposed to liability for certain extreme weather events. The article quotes researchers as the information on the information that “the emissions of one of the 14 largest companies were sufficient for themselves to cause more than 50 heat waves that would otherwise have been practically impossible.” It continues, citing activists who claim: “We can now point out certain heat waves and say: ‘Saudi Aramco did that. Exxonmobil did that.'”
The assertion that “global heating worldwide is more and more intensely the heat waves” ignores historical records, corresponds to evidence of experts and lack no evidence of a causal connection in the data.
Studies published in Peer -Review magazines such as The Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology show that the US heat wave frequency in the 1930s -Dust Bowl -ära got a long time before modern emissions climbed dramatically. The US -American Climate Extremes of the Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirms that remarkable heat wave events have been recorded in recent decades, but there is no clear, consistent upward trend in the 1930s. This graphic specified below, which has been used and published by the US environmental protection authority, is discussed in the climate at a glance: Using heat waves underline how unable to support the claim raised by the guardian is:
In recent decades there has been no upward or deterioration trend in heat waves. There is also no trend of heat waves that pursues the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, let alone a trend that is associated with greenhouse gas emissions of certain oil companies or the entire industry.
The attempt to consolidate certain weather disasters in certain companies extends far beyond their limits. Even the Intergovern Mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR6 report recognizes that attribution science can estimate the probabilities, many categories of extreme weather, including droughts and tropical cyclones, but not definitely with incremental global warming. The IPCC itself warns that uncertainties remain high, especially when using global climate models to regional, short -term events. If the leading authority in climate science enters the restrictions, it is incredible that a handful of researchers can jump directly from model spending on court applications for individual corporate debt.
Description studies are strongly based on counterfactual scenarios created by computer models instead of actually observed and measured climatic changes. The Guardian himself admits that the method compares today’s world with a “world before mass burning fossil fuels” by simulating what the world could look like, missing industrial emissions. This counterfactic world is not observable – it is generated in computer climate models, which enforces with uncertainties about clouds, aerosols and oceanters and the distortions of the modelers, whose assumptions reacts to the reaction of the climate into the models. Linking Exxonmobil or Saudi -Aramco with a single heat wave is pure speculation in scientific language, but in fact has no basis. It is nothing more than science fiction that is sold as a scientific fact to promote a political/legal goal.
Even the legal scientists listed in the article admit that the path to liability is “littered with legal and evidence of potholes”. These potholes exist for a good reason: since the weather is influenced by countless factors, including natural climate oscillations such as the Pacific Dekadal Oscillation and El Niño -South Vibration. The study referred to by the Guardian tried to assign the responsibility of the companies for a certain heat wave of 2021 Pacific northwest, which was thoroughly exposed in the article of climate area: Expert analysis: “climate change” had no significant role in the Pacific Northwest Heatwave. The allegations raised in the study ignore the long history of extreme events in this region, such as the record festival of heat wave from 1941, which occurred when the earth was cooler and the CO2 concentrations and emissions were lower.
Even if the CO2 emissions, in contrast to the evidence, could be associated with a trend of deterioration of heat waves that it does not exist because there is no such trend, it is not the oil companies that produce emissions, but the governments, industries, companies and people who use fossil fuels to produce modern society that actually produce emissions. The emissions are the result of our individual and collective decisions in the transport and products we use and the way we generate electricity, not in oil companies that provide fossil fuels for such use purposes.
By emphasizing the claims made in this wrong attribution study, he gave up journalism in favor of activism. Instead of reporting soberly about the borders of attribution science, a moral game is set up, in which oil companies become comfortable bad guys and every heat wave with a courtroom exponate. This is not a science – it is the propaganda that camouflages itself as news. Readers who should be able to expect them to discuss them through evidence and reveal hidden truths instead received theater cinemas who, with some regularity, generate a reasonless alarm to promote a scary narrative for political goals if the facts do not work together.
Like this:
Load…
Related
Do you discover more from watts?
Subscribe to the latest posts to your e -mail.
Comments are closed.