New jobless claims last week hit their lowest point in the pandemic crisis, showing that hiring is continuing, albeit at a slower pace.
Initial unemployment benefits were 712,000 last week, compared to 787,000 the week before and the Dow Jones estimate of 780,000, the Department of Labor reported Thursday.
That was a decrease from the revised upward of 787,000 a week earlier, a decrease likely aided by the Thanksgiving-related problem count.
The labor market has proven resilient despite the new wave of Covid-19 cases. Damage cases peaked at 6.9 million at the end of March, but are still well above the pre-pandemic record.
Ongoing claims also fell sharply, falling 569,000 to 5.52 million.
The damage data comes a day before the Labor Department releases its closely watched report on non-farm payroll for November. The Dow Jones estimates that wages will grow by 440,000 and the unemployment rate will fall to 6.7%.
The report is also the first since the Government Accountability Office said the weekly unemployment claims information was inaccurate during the pandemic. The Authority cited a myriad of backlogs and frauds and other inconsistencies at the state level as obstacles to an accurate count.
GAO recommended that the Department of Labor issue a disclaimer about the possible inaccuracy of the census, but none was included in this report.
“The collapse in initial claims doesn’t disprove the idea that the trend is rising. We expected a sharp decline as Thanksgiving is difficult to adjust,” Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson said in a note. “Initial claims are likely to rebound strongly next week, likely climbing above 800,000 for the first time in eight weeks.”
Pandemic unemployment assistance claims actually fell over the week, falling by more than 30,000 to 288,701. The program has benefits for those who are normally ineligible prior to the pandemic.
However, enrollments in the emergency pandemic program, which is aimed at those who have lost their normal benefits, continued to grow. That total rose nearly 60,000 to 4.57 million in the week ending November 14, the last time data is available.
A total of 20.16 million Americans received benefits, down 349,633 from the previous period. This is based on data also available by November 14th. This corresponds to 1.57 million a year ago.
At the state level, California (-38,522), Texas (-15,726), and Michigan (-12,448) reported the largest decreases according to unadjusted data. Claims rose in Illinois (8,543) and Oregon (5,483).
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