President Donald Trump blames meatpackers and U.S. ranchers for rising beef prices, but tariffs on beef from Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay, animal feed, farm equipment and machinery are fueling price increases.
The United States is a large buyer of Australian, Brazilian and New Zealand beef exports.
Brazil is the second largest beef producing country and the largest beef exporting country in the world.
Brazilian beef exports tracked by Panjiva plummeted in July and August after multiple tariffs led to the imposition of a tiered overall rate of 76.4% on Brazilian beef. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on many Brazilian goods in July. Beef exports have found a new home and are moving to other markets such as China.
Beef exports from Australia, New Zealand and Uruguay to the United States have also declined due to tariffs.
The decline in exports has reduced supply and is increasing pressure in an already strained U.S. beef supply chain.
“If you impose an additional 50% tariff on a large supplier like Brazil, importers may continue to buy and pass on the cost, or they may stop buying, but that means less supply to meet demand,” said Dan Anthony, president of economic research firm Trade Partnership Worldwide. “In any case, prices are expected to rise, especially if new tariffs are also imposed on imports from Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay and other key suppliers,” he added.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent consumer price index report for September showed prices for a variety of undercooked beef products increased between 12% and 18% year-over-year.
The compounding effect of tariffs comes at a time when the U.S. cattle population is near its lowest level in 75 years and consumer demand for beef has increased.
Cattle in a pasture on a ranch in Sonoita, Arizona, USA, on Tuesday, November 11, 2025.
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Ranchers have had difficulty increasing their herd size due to the drought, as it has resulted in less grassland to feed their herds and increased the cost of purchasing feed. Double-digit tariffs were imposed on some imported fertilizers, increasing the cost of growing crops (corn, soybeans) used as animal feed.
Tariffs on essential goods such as steel and aluminum have also increased the cost of farm equipment (tractors, grain bins) and repairs.
All of this additional spending takes money out of ranchers’ and farmers’ coffers that they would use to invest in their operations.
“We are in one of the toughest ranching cycles in history,” said sixth-generation Texas rancher James Clement III. “We have the smallest pipeline for future cattle, and even at today’s prices, ranchers cannot speed up the process of rebuilding the national herd, which will take time, grass and rain,” he said.
The number of replacement heifers has fallen to its lowest level in 20 years.
Ranchers say it takes years to make purchasing heifers profitable.
“The fundamentals are narrow, the runway is long and the slightest shock makes an already fragile rebuild even more difficult,” Clement said. “This is a foreign concept for many other industries where production can be ramped up or down in a matter of weeks,” he added.
One of the biggest headwinds slowing investment is the current political environment.
“Producers today are starting to consider whether to hold back heifers or take the cash because the uncertainty increases risk for ranchers who want to retain or purchase heifers to rebuild their herds,” Clement said.
President Trump added to frustration among ranchers when he announced in October that the country would export beef to the United States as part of a deal with Argentina to reduce beef prices. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association said this would hurt rural America and do nothing to solve problems in the domestic cattle market. The president’s plan helped drive down the price of livestock futures.
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Live livestock futures trading chart for current year 2025 through November 13th.
“We don’t need Argentine beef because the U.S. is already producing more high-quality beef than ever before,” Clement said. “The expanded Argentine quota entering our market would be less than half a percent, about an additional hamburger per person, not nearly enough to move the needle,” he said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently recognized the decline in herd numbers and announced a series of initiatives that it hopes will encourage people to become ranchers.
The White House has focused more on its messaging on affordability in recent days following key GOP election defeats across the country. The Trump administration announced trade deals on Thursday to help lower prices for some staple foods not grown in the U.S., including from the coffee and banana-growing countries of Ecuador and Guatemala, and additional tariff cuts on beef imports on Friday.
“It is politically easy to impose tariffs on foreign competitors to protect domestic producers, but in the end the consumer usually pays the cost,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners. “Then demand goes down, they eat chicken instead and domestic producers end up no better off,” he said.
While many ranchers wait for better economic conditions and incentives to raise their herds, Clement is investing in his ranch and continuing to purchase heifers to expand his operation.
“Cattle are a great long-term investment and ranching is a great life,” he said.
In addition to climate and feed costs, U.S. cattle producers are concerned about the possible return of the New World screwworm. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins led the largest USDA trade mission to Mexico to discuss measures to combat NWS.
The parasitic fly lays eggs in the open wounds of warm-blooded animals. The larvae then hatch from the eggs and burrow into the animal’s tissue to feed on them. If caught early, the sick animal can be treated and survive. Human cases are rare but can be painful and require medical attention. This parasite was successfully eradicated in the United States in 1966, but in Mexico some cattle were found to be infected with the parasite and all Mexican beef imports were stopped.
All of these supply chain challenges have increased pressure on beef prices.
“We will adapt to market changes and New World Screwworm, as ranchers always have, by remaining steadfast and calm in the face of all the challenges ranchers have always faced,” Clement said.
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