FileToto: US President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin Talk during the family photo at the APEC summit in Danang, Vietnam, November 11, 2017.
Jorge Silva | Reuters
The talks between the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the US counterpart Donald Trump are still removed, but the upcoming meeting of the two leaders to negotiate an end to the war war in Ukraine is already seen as a victory for the Kremlin, the Russian economy and the global financial markets.
The discussions should take place in Alaska on Friday.
“This is already a big victory for Putin, which is invited for the first time since 2007 to meet the US president on American soil. In his view, without conditions and the absence of Ukraine, the lack of European representation is already a triumph, the head of the London Business Faculty of Economic Affairs School, to CNBC Monday.
There are concerns that Ukraine could be forced to hand over the Russian -occupied area to Moscow, and the mood is dark in Kyiv, whose civil servants, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have not yet been invited to participate in the talks.
Kyiv said that in his absence, no deal would be affected about his future, and the European leaders are very much imposed on Ukraine's commitment. For its part, the United States has explained that it is considered to invite Zelenskyy, reported NBC News.
In the meantime, the economists say that the talks that take place as Russia on the battlefield in southern and eastern Ukraine without ceasefire agreements can be won over a victory for Putin and its war-centered economy, which works under international sanctions and stubborn high inflation of 9.4% in June.
“[Putin] Starts from a relatively strong position on the battlefield. They proceed … on the other hand, from an economic point of view, it starts from a weak position. The Russian economy is not very good. They operate a significant budget deficit, partly because the oil revenue decreases very significantly, oil and gas [are down] Because of the oil price. And … this is a weak economy, “Portes told CNBCs” Europe Early Edition “.
Russia will probably come into discussions with a strong position on the battlefield and probably want to help immediate sanctions as part of a ceasefire and Ukrainian territorial concessions.
The Kremlin has spied on Washington as an opportunity not only for economic relaxation, but also for investments. The Russian presidential assistant Yuri Ushakov found on Saturday that “the economic interests of our countries in Alaska and the Arctic cross, and there are views to implement large and mutually advantageous projects,” said the Kremlin.
Portes said if Trump had “patience and willingness to correctly apply sanctions and then wait [to hold talks] would lead to a very significant change in the balance of power. “
However, as things stand, Trump has thought, but has so far held back with increasing sanctions against Russia. Instead, Washington threatened the remaining trading partners of the Kremlin like India with “secondary sanctions” and additional trading tariffs for the continuation of Russian oil purchases that Moscow was financed.
Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in the Brics summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, via VideoLink from Moscow, Russia, on July 6, 2025.
Mikhail Metzel | About Reuters
When asked whether Trump with more criminal sanctions to push Putin in the direction of a peace agreement, Portes asked: “Can someone predict what the President of the United States will do from one day to the next?” It is very difficult. “
“The likelihood of an increase in sanction pressure is considerable, but … In view of Trump's desire for a Nobel Prize, the probability that Trump will increase the sanctions at this stage. It doesn't look very high, but he could change his opinion tomorrow.
'Win-Win' for defense shares
The global financial markets reacted positively to the announcement on Friday that the talks would take place directly at the end of the war, with the stage in Europe and the USA increasing. However, the defense shares in Europe fell into the news because the retailers seemed that peace condemned further investments by NATO allies.
The Spot Prize of Gold, which was considered a safe port in times of geopolitical and financial market stress, decreased by around 1% per ounce by around 1% per ounce by 8 years. London time on Monday.
The shares of Germany's Rheinmetall became almost 4% lower, while Hensoldt decreased by 1.5% and rending in early trades decreased by 3.3%. Italy's Leonardo and France Thales also dropped by 1.9% and 1.7%. During the time of Bae Systems and Babcock in London, profits from earlier a day also gave up 1.1% and 1.3% at 9 a.m.
But Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard, said that the talks could ultimately prove to be a “win-win situation for European defense shares”, and advised investors to “buy this weakness”.
Granville said that if the peace process fails, there would still be a need to fill up with enabled weapons of us and Europe, which would be very good for commands and procurement for Rheinmetall and all other European defense stocks.
“Or if there is a peace agreement, what do we see a very powerful Russian military, which – although the words” victory “and” defeat “are tied around and should probably not be used – to a certain extent. This reality will further increase the procurement of defense by European governments.
“Of course, the market has some time to time and when it brings them off [defense stock] Names withdraw a little, in my opinion you should buy this weakness. “
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