[this one is funny~cr]
The new Berkeley Lab study examines advances in moving towards a carbon-free energy sector
DOE / LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY
Research news
PICTURE: PROJECTED AGAINST ACTUAL RESULTS FOR THE US ELECTRICITY SECTOR. Show more CREDIT: BERKELEY LAB
Concerns about climate change are driving a growing number of states, utilities and corporations to set targets for zero carbon emissions from the electricity sector. So far, 17 states plus Washington, DC, and Puerto Rico have passed laws or executive orders to achieve 100% carbon-free electricity in the next few decades. In addition, 46 U.S. utility companies have committed to becoming carbon free by 2050 at the latest. Overall, these destinations cover approximately half of the US population and economy.
These are ambitious goals, but a fresh look at the past 15 years in the electricity sector shows that large emissions reductions are possible.
New research from the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) analyzes historical trends to examine how far the energy sector is in reducing emissions. The study “Halfway to Zero: Progress Towards a Carbon-Free Power Sector” reviews the Energy Information Administration (EIA) ‘s 2005 annual energy outlook, the US government’s official agency for data collection and analysis.
“According to the usual projections, annual carbon dioxide emissions rose from 2,400 to 3,000 million tons (MMT) from 2005 to 2020,” said Berkeley Lab scientist Ryan Wiser, lead author of the study. “However, actual emissions for 2020 fell to just 1,450 MMT. The US has cut emissions in the energy sector 52% below forecast levels – we are now halfway to zero. “
According to the study, the total electricity costs for consumers were 18% lower compared to the projected values. The costs to human health and the climate were 92% and 52% lower, respectively. and the number of jobs in power generation was 29% higher.
Drivers of change
From technological advancement to politics, the study identified the main drivers over the past 15 years that have contributed to lowering CO2 emissions in the US energy sector. Total electricity demand in 2020 was almost as high as in 2005 and 24% lower than forecast fifteen years ago. “This decline in demand was partly due to sectoral and economic changes, but also to greater energy efficiency driven by policy measures and technological advances,” said Wiser.
The researchers found that wind and solar energy dramatically exceeded expectations, delivering 13 times more electricity in 2020 than forecast. This is also a result of technology development, as well as state and federal policies, as the prices of new wind and solar technologies fell. In addition, nuclear power generation has largely stabilized, tracking past predictions and helping to keep carbon emissions from falling.
The study found that switching from coal to natural gas for power generation plays a big role in reducing CO2 emissions. Natural gas production grew rapidly, fueled by the shale gas revolution and low fuel prices.
The researchers also found that changes over the past 15 years had numerous other economic and environmental benefits. For example, total consumer electricity bills in 2020 were 18% lower than previously projected by the MSRP for a total savings of $ 86 billion per year.
According to the study, decreased sulfur and nitrogen emissions resulted in lower health effects such as respiratory disease, with premature deaths dropping from 38,000 to 3,100 per year. “Compared to the usual projection, the country has not only significantly reduced its carbon footprint, but also its overall energy costs and health impact,” said co-author and Berkeley Lab scientist Dev Millstein.
The study also found that employment patterns have shifted along with changes in the energy sector, but electricity supplies support 200,000 more jobs than it would have been based on the earlier forecast.
I’m looking forward to
While looking back shows that dramatic changes in emissions are possible over a 15-year period, the study suggests that this does not guarantee that similar progress will be made over the next 15 years.
With advances in wind, solar and battery technologies, these resources are likely to play an important role in further decarbonising the energy sector in the short term. According to the study, much of the capacity needed to achieve a low-carbon power sector target is already in the development pipeline: around 660 gigawatts (GW) of wind and sun have requested transmission access, more than half of what may be required to achieve a goal for a low carbon energy sector. Not all proposed projects are built, but the scale shows interest in development.
Wiser points out that there are significant infrastructure requirements associated with scaling renewable energy. The energy sector must ensure power supply, reliability and resilience. Construction of a new transmission infrastructure; Change planning and network operation; Revise location processes; and draw attention to affected workers and communities.
Another major challenge is to meet the latter part of the demand and ensure a reliable power supply when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining. The study concludes that further research, development and demonstration are needed on the many technologies that can fill this gap, such as: B. longer-term energy storage, hydrogen or synthetic fuels, bioenergy, production of fossil or biomass with carbon capture, nuclear energy and geothermal energy and solar thermal energy with storage.
“As the country works out a plan for further decarbonization, the experience of the past 15 years offers two central lessons,” said Wiser. “First, political and technological advances are essential to achieve significant emissions reductions. Second, our ability to predict the future is limited. Therefore, as we gain political experience and technology advances in unexpected ways, it is vital to adapt. “
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– From Kiran Julin
Funding for this research was provided by the Department of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy at the Department of Energy.
The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and its scientists were founded in 1931 with a belief that teams can best tackle the greatest scientific challenges and have been awarded 14 Nobel Prizes. Today, researchers at the Berkeley Lab are developing sustainable energy and environmental solutions, creating useful new materials, pushing the limits of computing, and exploring the secrets of life, matter, and the universe. Scientists from around the world rely on the laboratory’s facilities for their own science of discovery. The Berkeley Lab is a national multi-program laboratory administered by the University of California for the US Department of Energy’s Office of Science.
The DOE Office of Science is the biggest proponent of basic science in the United States, working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. More information is available at energy.gov/science.
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