A sign “We put” at a young and resource fair, which was organized by the Chamber of Commerce of the Asheville Area Chamber of Commerce in collaboration with NCWORKS in Fletcher, North Carolina, us, on Wednesday, April 9, 2025, a sign “WE”.
Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty pictures
There seems to be little doubt that the attitude was slowed down in May in May, since companies and consumers were committed to higher tariffs and increased economic uncertainty. The main question is how much.
A small decline from the latest trend would probably not be considered worrying. But all beyond that could run a new round of fears about the labor market and the broader economy and possibly incorporate the Federal Reserve into a faster than expected interest rate.
Economists expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics, if it does not report any agricultural salary statements on Friday at 8:30 a.m. on Friday at 8:30 a.m., a profit of only 125,000, compared to a first record of 177,000 in April and the monthly average of 144,000. This represents a film, but no collapse, and the markets will weaken according to the degree of decline.
“In the NFP printing, the expectations were reduced lower and a reading of around 100,000 (compared to the 125,000 expected in consensus) could fall into the Camp 'Not-As-Bad as-Feared' Camp, wrote Julien Lefargue, Chief Market Strategist at Barclay's private bank. “Everything under the 100,000 mark could rekindle the fears of the recession, while a stronger than expected pressure for risk assets could be perverse negative [Treasury] results. “
As a result, the report will be a balancing act between competing concerns of a slow labor market and an increasing inflation.
Data tell different stories
A broad spectrum of mood indicators, including the collection of production and services as well as measuring devices of the sentiment in small companies, indicate that optimism for the economy is cited the optimism of the economy, led by concerns about tariffs and inflation they could ignite.
In addition, ADP showed hard data this week that private salary statements were essentially flat in the past month and in May only grew by only 37,000, which is a low point of two years. JObless's demands have recently rushed up recently, since last week since October has been the highest.
The wage and salary account report on Friday could therefore be an essential referee to determine how much fears in the economy, where it counts, namely the labor market, which in turn provides references to the strength of consumers, which drive almost 70% of all US economic activity.
“We believe that it will slow down. We believe that the tariffs will bite a little,” said Dan North, Senior Economist at Allianz Trade North America. “Everyone hates the economy, but when you look at the hard data, it's not that bad.”
North assumes that it will take a few more months for the mood surveys – “soft” data – to demand its tribute to other economic readings such as salary statements.
Tariff effects are the key
In the meantime, the markets will observe further developments on the trading front, since President Donald Trump continues in a 90-day negotiating window, from which investors hope that investors will alleviate some of the “liberation day tariffs” that are in break.
“We do not expect a crash this month, probably not in the month after, but certainly a weight of the economy, not only from the tariffs, but also out of uncertainty. It is as if the collective bargaining policy is a ghost in the fog,” said North.
There are a variety of prospects on Wall Street, from Goldman Sachs, which expects growth of 110,000 under the consensus of salary statements to the Bank of America, which looks more for a number of around 150,000.
From there, investors will try to find out whether the latest numbers are postponed to the needle of the Fed policy, although the markets are currently not expecting any further interest rate cuts by September. Most political decision -makers have recently focused on the inflation effect induced by tariff, with the restriction that they also observe the number of jobs.
“An encouraging sign of economic activity is the resilience of the labor market,” said Fed Governor Adriana Kugler in New York on Thursday. “We will receive the employment report in May tomorrow, but which is growing in hand in hand and that the job offer and demand remain in relative balance.”
In the consensus estimate, the unemployment rate also lasts 4.2%, while average hourly profits are expected to have a monthly profit of 0.3% and an annual increase of 3.7%.
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