People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on December 12, 2025 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
Wall Street awaits the release of the November consumer price index report on Thursday, as it will be the first reading for the period since the end of the record-breaking U.S. government shutdown last month.
The report, which tracks the average change in prices people pay for a range of goods and services, is expected to show a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Excluding food and energy, core CPI is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 3.0%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the release “will not include one-month percentage changes for November 2025, where October 2025 data is missing,” as the agency canceled the October inflation report in late November, weeks before the Federal Reserve’s final meeting this year. September CPI data – the most recent CPI report released and the only economic data released during the shutdown – showed an annual gain of 3.0% for the headline and core metrics.
“The psychological distinction between a two-trade and a three-handle will be paramount,” José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said in an interview with CNBC.
While the consensus estimate suggests the annual rate will hit the 3% threshold this month, the senior economist sees the headline and core readings coming in lower than expected at 2.9% each, although he believes the range of possible outcomes for the headline rate could be between that and 3.1%.
If the report shows a value of 2.9%, this could provide some positive momentum for stocks into 2026. In fact, Torres believes such a number would pave the way for a so-called Santa Claus rally. He also believes it would impact the interest rate outlook for next year – a period in which the Fed forecasts a rate cut.
“It would really strengthen the expectations of monetary easing in the last inflation report – the CPI report – of 2025 if we could keep inflation at two instead of increasing it to three, because that will allow further rate cuts next year,” Torres added.
Not a “clean” report
While the release could help pave the way for a year-end rally, there would still need to be other catalysts in place, as others like Crossmark Global Investments’ Victoria Fernandez don’t believe a 0.1 percentage point move in one direction or the other would result in a “huge” market reaction. She also believes that even at 2.9%, Fed policymakers would still be on a wait-and-see approach.
“I think it’s going to be different. This isn’t going to be a clean CPI number,” the company’s chief market strategist said, citing the lack of monthly data as one factor and when exactly the BLS could start collecting November data as another.
US President Donald Trump signs the funding bill ending the US government shutdown at the White House in Washington, DC on November 12, 2025
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters
President Donald Trump officially signed a funding bill on November 12 that will reopen the government after a 43-day shutdown, the longest in U.S. history. This prompted the BLS to postpone the November CPI report from its originally scheduled release date of December 10th.
“When the government actually opened up and started collecting data, we were almost halfway through the month of November, so you only get the last half of the month,” Fernandez said. “You have to ask yourself, ‘Is there some kind of bias in terms of how pricing and how it works in the second half of the month compared to the beginning of the month?'”
Ultimately, the strategist believes the overall theme will be that inflation “remains high” and that it does not head back toward 2% as some expected.
“We have tremendous uncertainty about where we go from here because we have conflicting stories,” Fernandez said. “We can have weak unemployment trends, weak household income and weak consumer spending, and then next year we can expect 14% earnings growth and strong revenues. All the pieces of the puzzle don’t quite fit together.”
“We just need more information before we can make a real statement about what the long-term trajectory will be,” she continued.
As the shutdown ends, important data from another inflation measure has come to light, namely the September lagged value of the private consumption expenditure price index. However, investors are still waiting for the PCE reports for October and November, which have yet to be postponed.
Delayed producer price index figures for October will be announced with the November PPI report, the publication of which has been postponed until January 14th.
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