This weakness comes from Fudan University and the “Clustered Climate Science” department. You cannot show a trend in the North Atlantic Hurricanes and change the narrative in the “cluster” of hurricanes. Of course, nobody could see such clusters before the satellite period, so what did they do? Of course, make a “probabilistic frame”, also known as a model – Anthony
Tropical cyclone cluster over the North Atlantic. This picture of NOAA's Goes-16 satellite on September 14, 2020 shows five tropical systems that turn in the Atlantic Basin at the same time. From left to right: Hurricane Sally in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Paulette east of the Carolinas, the remains of the tropical storm in the central Atlantic and tropical storms Teddy and Vicky in the eastern Atlantic. A total of 10 storms mentioned were formed in September 2020 – most of it for each month. (Credit: Noaa)
Tropical cyclones, which are generally referred to as typhoon or hurricanes, can form in clusters and influence the coastal regions in a row. For example, the Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria met in 2017. The Federal Administrative Agency of the Federal Functions did not provide adequate support for hurricane victims in Puerto Rico when Maria beat because most rescue resources and specialized disasters were used for the answers to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
A new study published in Nature climate change confirms that these hurricane clusters have become increasingly common in the North Atlantic in recent decades – a trend that is to be continued in the near future.
Tropical cyclone clusters describe the event that two or more tropical cyclones are present in the same pool at the same time. This phenomenon is not uncommon, since historically only 40% of the tropical cyclones appeared alone. Apart from the combined effects of individual storms, tropical cyclone clusters can cause disproportionate damage, since coastal communities and infrastructures need time to withdraw from the effects of the first storm. The understanding of tropical cyclone clusters and their future is therefore important for the risk management of the coast.
In the analysis of the historical observation of tropical cyclones, the authors found that in the past few decades the opportunities for the tropical cyclone cluster were decreased in northwestern Pacific basins and increased in the North Atlantic Basin. “We tried to develop a probabilistic framework to understand this trend,” said Dazhi XI, a climatologist at HKU who headed the study together and developed the methodology. Mechanisms and hoped that in the past few decades we have been able to find out why tropical cyclone cluster had changed. “
However, the probabilistic model is only partially successful. For a few years, it significantly underestimates the probability of a tropical cyclone cluster. It is because some storms not only coexist with other storms, but that they have physical link. “The apparently failed statistical model will soon become a powerful tool that can distinguish the physical tropical cyclone cluster with which by pure coincidence,” said Wen Zhou, air conditioner at Fudan University and the corresponding author of the study. In those years in which the probabilistic model fails, the authors find that synoptic waves, a number of train -like atmospheric disorders, improve the likelihood of tropical cyclone cluster formation.
The study also discovered that the LA-Nina-like global heating pattern, which is characterized by slower warming in the eastern Pacific compared to the West Pacific, is the reason for the observed shifts of the hotspot of the tropical cyclone cluster. “The warming pattern not only modulates the frequency of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and North Westphalian Basin, but also affects the strength of the synoptic waves, which together causes the shift of the tropical cyclone cluster hotspots from the Northwestern Pacific to North Atlantic Basin, which Cyclone cluster hotspot from the Northwestern Pacific Atlantic Basin “, a PhD student who the PHD student of the PhD Fudan University, the student has the student of the study that the study has the study that has the study.
Research determines a probabilistic basic model for the examination of tropical cyclone cluster events and its underlying physical mechanisms. This framework not only explains the observed shift of the hotspot of the tropical cyclone cluster from the northwestern Pacific to the North Atlantic basin, but also offers a transferable methodology that is applicable to other ocean basins worldwide. It is important that the authors identify the North Atlantic in recent decades as an emerging hotspot for tropical cyclone cluster. This finding requires increased attention from the Atlantic Court countries and asks them to develop proactive strategies against them.
References:
Fu, ZH, D. XI, S.-P. Xie, W. Zhou, N. Lin, J. Zhao, X. Wang, and JCL Chan, 2025: Change hotspot of tropical cyclon clusters in a warming climate. Nature climate change, 15th https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-02397-9
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