From Andy May
As can be seen in the first post of this series, the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and the WHWP (western hemisphere warm pool) are the two climate oscillations that most of the variability (64%) in Hadcrut5 -temperature -temperature reconstruction (GMST) since 1950. (Sam) (sam) (sam).
The warm pool of the western hemisphere or the WHWP is an anomaly that is located on the surface of the sea warmer as 28.5 ° C (ie within the 28.5 ° C -isothermus) and approximately within the rectangular range from 7 ° N to 27 ° N and 110 ° W to 50 ° W. This area extends from the eastern North Pacific (west of Mexico, Central America and Columbia) to the Gulf of America, the Caribbean and far into the Atlantic during the WHWP summit in August and September (Wang & Enfield, 2001) and (Wang & Enfield, 2003). It is significant because the deep convection begins at around 28 ° C (Sud, Walker & Lau, 1999).
The WHWP disappears almost in the northern hemisphere in winter and begins every spring in the eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico and Central America (think of the current hurricane cereal). In June and July, it spreads northeast of an atmospheric bridge into the Caribbean and the Gulf of America. It usually reaches its maximum size in September (see Figure 1). In contrast to the western-Pacific warm pool that spans the equator, the WHWP is completely north of the equator (Wang & Enfield, 2003). Figure 1 shows some important maps of the average of 1950-2000 28.5 ° C SST-isotherm from Wang and Enfields 2003 paper.
Figure 1. Monthly monthly average contour tickets from 1950-2000 average SST in the WHWP region. The critical 28.5 ° C -isotherm is shaded. Note that the top area on the Pacific side in May and the top area of the Atlantic in September is located. To see tickets for another months, see Figure 1 in (Wang & Enfield, 2003).
All indices of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity include a multidid cadae variation that coincides with multidele cadalies of the AMO (Goldenberg, Landsea, Mestas-Nuñez & Gray, 2001) and the Atlantic part of the WHWP, sometimes as AWP or the AWP or the Atlantic Warm Pool (Wang, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, and Lee, 2008, 2008). When the Atlantic part of the WHWP is large, it reduces the vertical windscreen and increases the instability of the troposphere, both of which increase hurricane activity (Wang, Lee & Enfield, 2008). The WHWP has strong connections to the AMO and a statistical connection to Enso (Wang, Lee & Enfield, 2008) and (Enfield & Mayer, 1997).
Due to the equatorial Atlantic eastern winds and ocean currents, water in the Gulf of America and the Caribbean, which form the core of the AWP, collects water that was heated by the sun. While the Gulf Stream carries a lot from this heat, it cannot continue in summer and warmed up the water until the deep convection begins. The deep convection forms high clouds that prevent long -wave radiation from escaping and acting as positive feedback. The increase in SST and evaporation continues to lower the air pressure of the sea level and forms organized storms (Wang & Enfield, 2003). Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes form within the WHWP and act as huge air conditioning systems that suck heat from the surface of the sea and take them almost as high as the stratosphere in some strong storms. They also transport warmth to the North Atlantic and Canada. These processes accelerate the transport of excess energy into space.
In August and September, hurricanes often intensify quickly south and north of Cuba. The WHWP dissolves very quickly after October. The thermal flows in the WHWP are shown in Figure 2, which comes from Wang & Enfield (2003).
Figure 2. 2a: SST, Net heat flow and Ocean heat storage. 2b: heat flow, solar is a positive heat flow, latent, long wave and sensual rivers are negative. The net flow in (A) is sensitive to solar lattentlong wave. In the zero line in (a), the tendency of the ocean heating memory is balanced, the heat loss from the ocean is below zero and the upper ocean heats over zero.
In Figure 2a SST, the net price flow and the pretensioning of the octopus heat are presented by average monthly values from 1950-2000. The horizontal blue line is at zero Ocean Heat Storage to share the ocean cooling by heating the ocean. The borders are in February and August. SST changes follow the heat flow changes by three to four months. The individual thermal flows are shown in Figure 2b. The net flow in (a) is the shortwave (solar) river minus the net -langwell, net -latent- (evaporation) and negative negative net -sensitive fluss (Wang & Enfield, 2003).
The long wave radiation is calculated using the Graybody River from the surface of the sea and taken into account in the back radiation of clouds. The latent river takes into account the evaporation, which is a function of SST and average wind speed. Sensitive heat flow is mainly a function of the wind speed. The average depth of the mixed layer and thus the SSTs shown in Figure 1 is about 25 meters.
The WHWP correlates closely with the Niño-3 anomaly and the tropical North Atlanticanomal R2 = 0.68 and 0.63 (Wang & Enfield, 2003). It is not surprising that the eastern North Pacific section of the WHWP with Niño-3 correlated with a time lag. Niño-3 and the overall delay have a three-month delay. Figure 3 shows WHWP and its 5-year middle value all year.
Figure 3. The full year WHWP average and its 5-year middle value. NOAA data.
As we saw in Post One, the WHWP is closely related to the middle surface temperature (GMST), which also correlates in 2003 in Wang and Enfield, such as the annual development and destruction of the WHWP with seasonal precipitation, temperature and storms over North and Central America. The WHWP disappears almost every winter, so the most important months for the WHWP from May to October. Figure 4 diagrams The average for these critical months I added the Hadcrut5 -GMSt for comparison. The close relationship between Hadcrut5 and WHWP is easy to see.
Figure 4. The “summer average” is the average of the months until October, the active WHWP period. NOAA data. The heavy gray curve is the average of the HADS5 for the whole year.
Although the WHWP is not as discussed as much as the AMO, PDO, EnSO and other oscillations, it is a good predictor for the global middle surface temperature of Hadcrut5. In combination with the Antarctic vibration or southern ring mode and the AMO, it does a very good job. This indicates that the circulatory patterns of the North Atlantic and the southern hemisphere correlate very well with the global climate trends. CO2 could fit somewhere nearby, but with these natural vibrations they have to share the limelight.
Enfield, DB & Mayer, da (1997). Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability and its relationship with the El Niño-South Vibration. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 102 (C1). Doi: 10.1029/96JC03296
Goldenberg, SB, Landsea, CW, Mestas-Nuñez, AM & Gray, WM (2001). The latest increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: causes and effects. Science, 293 (5529), 474-479. DOI: 10.1126/Science.1060040
Sud, YC, Walker, GK & Lau, KM (1999). Mechanisms that regulate the temperatures of the sea surface and the deep convection in the tropics. Geophysical Research Letters, 26 (8), 1019-1022. Doi: 10.1029/199900197
Wang, C. & Enfield, DB (2001). The warm pool of the tropical western hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 28 (8). DOI: 10.1029/2000gl011763
Wang, C. & Enfield, DB (2003). Another examination of the warm pool of the tropical western hemisphere. Journal of Climate, 16 (10), 1476-1493. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442 (2003) 0162.0.co; 2
Wang, C., Lee, S.-K. & Enfield, DB (2008). Atlantic warm pool, which acts as a connection between Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and Atlantic tropical cyclonal activity. Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems, 9 (5). DOI: 10.1029/2007GC001809
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