Soldiers march during a military parade for the 250th birthday of the US Army in Washington, DC, USA, June 14, 2025.
Nathan Howard | Reuters
When the government was very hope for a quick solution, a situation in which the US military is involved could make the war -oriented factions in Washington agree.
No, soldiers are not put into service to force the congress to come back to work.
A threatening salary check that is planned for the 1.3 million active members of the armed services in mid -October could not be worth the political costs.
“We believe that the military payment date on October 15 could be an important force for a compromise in order to restore the financing and to expect the shutdown to end until mid -October.” Goldman Sachs The economists Ronnie Walker and Alec Phillips said in a customer note.
The Wall Street company found that the predictive markets have a high probability that the shutdown will go beyond the deadline. Polymarket reflects a probability of 71% that the shutdown will run after October 14th.
While the respective pages have dug in the heels in terms of household budget, the lack of a payment period could fulfill public anger. At least it could lead to a temporary legal template that is known as a continuous decision to enable the government to enable the company, the Goldman economists said.
If not, this could mean an even longer patient situation.
“We expect the pressure to build on both parties to achieve a compromise beforehand,” they wrote. “This means that if this pressure leads to an alternative result, defense of the defense could find a way to pay troops despite the financing loss, or the congress could be under pressure to approved the financing for this specific problem – there are only a few other specific enforcement events in the calendar that could lead to a restoration of the financing.”
The observations are associated with low hopes for a solution.
The Senate has planned a vote for Monday at 5:30 p.m., but observers expect little progress. President Donald Trump has threatened that some of the temporary layoffs that arise from the dead end could be permanently if no agreement is made.
There are countless questions that could force the hand beyond military payment beyond the congress. Published data on which the political decision -makers rely on are exposed to, the delays at the airport are an impending possibility of whether the employees of the transport security administration appear and most of the other state services are closed until the agreement.
Nevertheless, there are fears that no side moves.
“Concerns with regard to military payment, TSA operations or the delayed mortgage numbers for service members could become catalysts for compromises,” said Ed Mills, analysts in Washington Policy at Raymond James, in a note. “While a short -term continued solution remains the most likely result, we do not exclude the risk of a longer breastfeeding down by November.”
To observe further data is a potential sequence of children in the children from women on October 13, November 1, when the open enrollment for Obamacare and November 21 begins when the congress is to break the Thanksgiving Festival during the year.
However, the risk remains that the shutdown will continue according to PIMCO analysts.
“Dill down is simple, but the reopening are more difficult, and this – which has been the first complete shutdown since 2013 – seems to be particularly insoluble at least for the time being,” said the company in a note.
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