From the emergency zone
From P Gosselin
By Frank Bosse, climate news
We remember: by mid -2023, the data on global temperatures had shown a very clear increase. It had become pretty quickly warmer worldwide, incredible 0.5 ° C compared to 2022. This led to a new record for the year in 2024. The German public television broadcaster Tagesschau (and many other media) did this in detail.
The whole (climate) world asked about the matter. The daily show rightly came to the conclusion that the (rather mediocre) El Nino could only make a very low contribution in the second half of 2023. Overall, the increase in global temperatures occurred at the same time, which simultaneously with the elnino climb of the ocean temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific (an area called “Nino 3.4”. Temperatures to follow Nino 3.4. Causality would have been violated.
In January 2022 it was already clear that something was going on. A volcano named Honga-Untunga-Honga broke out. It is an underwater volcano and large masses of water were thrown into the stratosphere. Here is a satellite image of it.
It has long been known that stratospheric water vapor leads to the temperatures on the ground rise globally. However, such a volcano is a natural event, the warning effect is then added “above” of the greenhouse gas effect. However, the “bump” itself was not artificial. Unfortunately, the news report did not mention this at all.
Every “impulse” that affects global temperatures (including country volcanoes such as the outbreak of Pinatubo in 1991, which had a cooling effect due to many aerosols in the stratosphere), this affects this with a certain delay. The climate effect is slowly building up in the atmosphere and the thermal inertia of the earth system as a whole makes the rest.
As a result, studies appeared like this in early 2023, which had predicted temporary warming of more than the “famous” 1.5 ° K deviation of pre-industrial values.
According to the Tagesschau, this happened: “In 2024, the first calendar year was also 1.6 degrees warmer worldwide than pre -industrial level from 1850 to 1900.”
However, the report itself attributes this to progressive artificial warming. At this time, this also partially reflected the state of knowledge that some literature wanted to convey on this topic. This study of July 2024, in which even a total cooling effect of the volcanic eruption was determined on the basis of the aerosols that also occur, should be mentioned here as a representative example.
Here is the greatest possible development of global temperatures according to GISS:
The values will be extrapolated by the end of July 2025, and this month is estimated 7 days before the end using a model.
The volcano in question appeared at the end of January 2022. Not much happened until May 2023. Then the “pulse response” of the climate modal probably took place: In September 2023, additional heating of 0.58 ° C was proven compared to the average for 2022. The average of 2024 was increased by an increased increase of 0.39 ° C compared to the 222 -year increase of 0.39 ° C compared to 2022.
Between 1980 and 2020 there was a heating of 0.018 ° C/year, now it should suddenly be a factor of 10 in the years 2022-2024? That was always completely unlikely!
Likewise, the downturn in 2025 of over 0.4 ° C worldwide within just 6 months.
So the (climate) world continues. Here, too, no final cause can be given for the roller coaster ride of global temperatures. However, the likelihood speaks for a course that was largely determined by the underwater volcanic eruption with a lot of water vapor in the stratosphere (unprecedented variables according to this study).
However, this is not suitable for the warning of a “climate catastrophe” produced by humans by exceeding the (purely politically determined) 1.5 ° C mark, even with the wisdom of the “accelerated warming”. The whole thing with 2023/24 was very likely a natural event. The 3/10 ° C heating compared to pre-industrial times in 2022 could be missing again in 2026. The gap will probably be a little smaller.
“Vulcano is over”, hopefully also the propaganda and the scar dishes!
4.2
5
Voices
Article evaluation
Like this:
Load…
Related
Do you discover more from watts?
Subscribe to the latest posts to your e -mail.
Comments are closed.