The Honest Broker Substack by Roger Pielke Jr. has a guest post by Mike Smith, who is worth reading.
This is a guest contribution by Mike Smith. He is an incredibly successful scientist and entrepreneur with over 30 US and foreign patents, awards from three professional societies and his publication in the field of severe thunderstorms. He tells me that his proudest professional performance is the thousands of human life that were saved by Mike and his team at Weatherdata – and later founded by Accuweather Enterprise Solutions after his company was acquired. I served on his board of directors for several years and watched him first hand. We are lucky enough to have his voice here at THB. – RP
The case for a US disaster examination committee from Mike Smith
Compared to the past ten years, the first quarter of 2025 was terrible for the America's commercial aviation industry and its passengers. It found out:
- Near Washington's Reagan Airport, the first mid-air collision with an airplane since 1960 with the loss of 67 lives;
- A fall landing at the Pearson Airport from Toronto;
- an extreme almost miss of a Southwest Airlines 737 and a business jet at Chicago's Midway Airport;
There were at least three other incidents in which aircraft evacuations of aircraft were underway with preliminary indications.
In view of the extensive media reporting, however, there was little if at all if these accidents and incidents occurred.
Why?
I think passengers have a lot of confidence that these problems from the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) will be examined and solved. With legislative origins of almost 100 years, the Congress in 1974 created the NTSB as an independent agency for the federal government. Since then, the NTSB has developed an outstanding reputation for a fair and precise analysis of accidents and incidents that affect all means of transport.
In my career I supported the NTSB in a small way with two of his investigation. In 1997 my company Weatherdata was examined by the board for our flash flood warnings and services that were offered by our railway customers after the derailment of the Southwest leader from Amtrak near Kingman, Arizona. The board was thorough and professional and we received clean health (see report).
Due to my considerable experience, both in the functionality of the NTSB and in more than 50 years of experience in the area of advice, forecast and warning of extreme weather and its effects, the congress should create a US DRB (US -DRB) that was modeled on the extremely successful NTSB.
Just as the first quarter of 2025 was a bad run for the US air ride, the past 15 years have experienced a number of natural disasters with considerable deaths and billion dollar damage fees (in the values of $ 2025). This includes:
- 2011 Joplin Tornado, 161 deaths, 3.9 billion US dollars
- 2018 “Camp” fire, 85 deaths, 17 billion US dollars
- 2022 hurricane Ian, 161 deaths, 112 billion US dollars
- 2023 Maui Wildfire, 102+ Deaths, 5.5 billion US dollars
- 2024 Hurricane Helene Appalachian Flooding, 230+ deaths, final damage fee TBD
- 2025 Los Angeles Waldbranns, 28+ Deaths (more than 30 missing), preliminary financial loss is estimated at 250 and 275 billion US dollars, which would outperform hurricane Katrina as the most expensive natural disaster in the history of the United States.
When an aircraft crashes, aviation officers know exactly what to do to determine what happened, why, and use this information to propose and implement changes to prevent future events.
What about disasters? As a popular film, once asked: “Who will you call?”
In contrast to other nations – such as the United Kingdom – the United States has no systematic process to investigate disasters and use lessons for future reduction. Because of my considerable experience in the functioning of the NTSB and more than 50 years of experience in the area of advice, forecast and warning of extreme weather and its effects, the congress should create a US -DRB (US -DRB) that was modeled on the extremely successful NTSB.
The NTSB was originally founded by the Congress in 1967 in the US Transport Ministry (DOT). Seven years later, the congress found that there was potential for conflicts of interest when the NTSB examined other agencies of the point such as the Federal Aviation Administration.
The Congress made the NTSB an independent federal authority.
DRB would be occupied with experts in applied (in contrast to theoretical) meteorology, geology, oceanography, emergency reaction and related areas, with the ability to appoint relevant experts for its investigative collectors. The area of responsibility of the DRB would be natural disasters, including:
- Hurricane and tropical storms
- Tornados and other severe convective storms such as Derechos and downburks
- Tsunamis
- Floods
- Forest fires
- earthquake
- Vulcan eruptions
Main disasters such as medical pandemics or technological disasters (i.e. a radiation leak or chemical spill) will go beyond the area of responsibility of the DRB. Some of these disasters created by humans are already treated by the US Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board.
One of the reasons for the high success of the NTSB is the focus on transport. For example, if the DRB were assigned to pandemics that require a significantly different focus and specialist knowledge as natural disasters – but the United States also needs to be able to evaluate answers to pandemics.
In October 2021, the California representative Katie Porter presented a BI party cross-party law to create a natural disaster safety authority, which the House of Representatives (but not the Senate) passed. Her bill provided $ 70 million for the first year expenditure and stated that the Board of Directors either have to be compiled with an existing state research institution (which I have to be compiled due to the potential for conflicts of interest, similar to the first years of the NTSB) or a university campus.
In order to isolate a DRB from politics and make it accessible to the entire nation equally, the DRB should be its headquarters outside the Beltway and the constantly changing wind of politics Washington. My recommendation is that it is in the central United States to ensure equal access to all parts of the nation and that potential conflicts of interest are taken into account and avoided when a location is selected.
Like the NTSB, the DRB would be an independent agency. The NTSB has five board members, each appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate as a 5-year office. The president describes a board member and another deputy chairman for 3 years. I recommend the same for the DRB. To their recognition, both political parties respected the essential requirement of the independence of the board of directors.
To read the rest, go to Roger Pielke Jr.'s the Honest Broker Substack
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