From the NoTricksZone by Pierre L. Gosselin
By Kenneth Richard on January 11, 2021
A new analysis of global sea level rise rates concludes that the increasing trend from 1900 to 2018 was 1.56 mm / year – ¹. This is the same rate as for 1958-2014 (1.5 mm / year – ¹), indicating that rates of sea level rise have not changed significantly over the last 120 years.
In 2018 Frederikse et al. assessed the factors that contributed to long-term sea level rise from 1958 to 2014. They measured ice melt and thermal expansion together to raise sea level by 1.3 mm / yr – ¹ over that period, and the total rate of sea level rise was 1.5 mm / yr – ¹.
Image source: Frederikse et al., 2018
Then, in a study published last August, Frederikse et al. (2020) Interestingly, they found that rates of sea level rise since 1900 for the entire period from 1900 to 2018 (1.56 mm / year – ¹) were practically the same as from 1958 to 2014 (1.5 mm / year – ¹).
The overall long-term trend in sea level rise has fluctuated: high rates in the 1930s and 1940s, a slowdown in the 1960s and 1970s, and then a return to high rates in recent decades.
It is interesting to note that the contribution of melted ice to sea level rise – including the contribution of melted ice from the Greenland ice sheet – was higher in the 1930s and 1940s than in previous decades. Indeed, the contribution of total ice mass loss from glaciers was higher throughout the period 1900 – 2018 (0.70 mm / year – ¹) than since 1957 (0.52 mm / year – ¹), suggesting a relative slowdown.
None of these trends – the multidecadal fluctuation in rates or the higher contribution of the ice mass before 1950 – seem to correlate well with the linearly accelerated increase in CO2 emissions since the 1940s.
Image source: Frederikse et al., 2020
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