By Steve Goreham
“In 2015, NASA scientists predicted that the ozone hole would be half closed by 2020. That didn't happen. Other scientists have predicted that the hole will not disappear until 2040 or later. But the longer the hole lasts, the greater the likelihood that the ozone layer will be dominated by natural factors rather than human CFC emissions.”
Another year has passed and the stubborn ozone hole over Antarctica refuses to go away. Data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) shows that the area of the ozone hole remains about the same as it has been for the past 30 years. But will scientists admit they didn't save the ozone layer?
background
Ozone is a gas consisting of three oxygen atoms (O3). Ninety percent of the ozone in the atmosphere is in the stratosphere, a layer of the atmosphere between about 10 and 50 kilometers high. The amount of ozone in the atmosphere varies depending on the season.
Dr. Mario Molina and Dr. Sherwood Rowland of the University of California published a paper in 1974 warning that industrial pollution from chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was destroying the ozone layer in the Earth's stratosphere. CFCs were gases used in hairsprays, refrigerators and insulation foams.
Molina and Rowland's theory postulated that CFCs from human industry travel up through the atmosphere into the stratosphere, where ultraviolet radiation breaks down CFC molecules and releases chlorine atoms. Chlorine then acts as a catalyst to break ozone molecules into oxygen, reducing the ozone concentration. According to the theory, the more CFCs are consumed, the greater the destruction of the ozone layer.
In 1983, researchers from the British Antarctic Survey discovered ozone layer thinning over Antarctica that occurred in August, September and October. This became known as the ozone hole. This seemed to confirm the theory of Molina and Rowland, who were awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1995 for their work.
Montreal Protocol (1987)
The ozone layer blocks ultraviolet rays and thus protects the earth's surface from high-energy radiation. Scientists say breaking down the layer would increase the incidence of skin cancer and cataracts and cause immune system problems in humans. In “Earth in the Balance” (1992), Al Gore claimed that hunters reported finding blind rabbits in Patagonia and that fishermen were catching blind fish due to human destruction of the ozone layer, although this has not been confirmed.
In 1987, 29 countries and the European Community signed the “Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer”. Over the next decade, more than 180 nations joined the treaty as signatories, all agreeing to ban the use of CFCs.
Due to the Montreal Protocol ban, global consumption of ozone-depleting substances (ODS), or chlorofluorocarbons, began to decline in 1990. According to the European Environment Agency, ODS consumption fell by 90 percent by 2005 and is now down by more than 99 percent.
Result?
The Montreal Protocol was hailed as an international example of how nations could come together to solve a major environmental problem. The protocol has been praised as an example of eliminating greenhouse gas emissions in the fight against global warming. But despite the elimination of CFCs, the ozone hole remains as large as ever.
NASA reported this fall that the average ozone hole area again reached 23 million square kilometers from September 7 to October 13, about the same level as the previous three decades, from 1994 to 1995. The gap remains large, even though global consumption of ozone-depleting substances has almost completely disappeared.
In 2015, NASA scientists predicted that the ozone hole would be half closed by 2020. However, that didn't happen. Other scientists have predicted that the hole will not disappear until 2040 or later. But the longer the hole lasts, the greater the likelihood that the ozone layer will be dominated by natural factors rather than human CFC emissions.
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Steve Goreham is a speaker on energy, the environment and public policy and the author of the bestselling book Green Breakdown: The Coming Renewable Energy Failure. His recent Wall Street Journal editorial, “If Green Energy Is the Future, Bring a Fire Extinguisher,” brought national attention to the lithium battery problem.
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