Guests and visits during the IWF/World Bank Group Spring meetings in the IMF -Hauptquartier in Washington, DC, on April 24, 2025 through the atrium.
Jim Watson | AFP | Getty pictures
After years that were dominated by pandemic, supply chains, energy and inflation, there was a new topic that the agenda on the World Bank and the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund exceeded this year: tariffs.
The IMF stated the tone by starting the week with the publication of his latest economic forecasts that reduce the growth prospects for the USA, Great Britain and many Asian countries. While economists, central bankers and politicians work in panels and talks behind the scenes, many try to find out whether the trade voltages between China and the USA or non-cooling or maybe not.
The political decision-makers of the European Central Bank, for which CNBC spoke this week, largely stuck a tovish-addressing tone, which indicates that the interest rates fell further and only turned a few appearances on the euro zone upside down. However, everyone emphasized the current high uncertainty to monitor the need to monitor the data and the high risks for the growth prospects – the feelings that were also shown by the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, in his interview with CNBC on Thursday.
These were some of the main news from ECB members this week.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank
About inflation and monetary policy:
“We go to ours [inflation] Goal in the course of 2025, so that the disinflationary process is so much on the right path that we are about to be completed. But we have the shocks, you know, and the shocks are dampened by GDP. It is a negative shock to demand. “
“The net effects on inflation depend on which countermeasures are ultimately taken by Europe. Then we have to take this into account [German] Fiscal Push through the defense investments by the infrastructure fund. “
“We have seen successive movements, you know, announcement [of U.S. tariffs]And then a break and then some exceptions. So we have to be very attentive … either we cut, either we pause, but we will be data dependent on the extreme. “
On market movements:
“When we had made our projections, we expected that … the dollar would appreciate it, the euro would devalue. It is not what we saw. And there were some contraguitive movements in different categories.”
“The German market was obviously shocked in a positive way that the program was soon obliged by the German government with a commitment to defense with a great fund for the development of the infrastructure.”
Klaas Knot, President of the Netherlands Bank
In the case of tariff uncertainty:
“When I look back in the past 14 years, I think in the first few days of pandemic that this was a comparable uncertainty for what we have now.”
“In the short term, it is crystal clear that the uncertainty that is created by the unpredictability of the tariff actions of the US government acts as a strong negative factor for growth. Basically, the uncertainty is like a tax without income.”
About the inflation effect:
“We will have less growth in the short term. We will probably also have a lower inflation. As we see, the euro estimates that the energy prices have also dropped. Together with the type of negative factoral uncertainty, it is crystal clear that it accelerates disinflation.”
“But in the medium term the inflation prospects are not so clear. I think there are still these negative factors. But in the medium term, they can receive retaliation.
At a June prices and market prices for two other ECB installment cuts in 2025:
“I am completely open and completely open. I think it is far too early to take a position in June, regardless of whether it is another cut. It will depend entirely on these projections.”
“I would have to see a more structured analysis of the effects on the inflation profile in front of us, and only then can I say whether the market is a price fair or whether I am not doing it.”
Robert Holzmann, Austrian National Bank Governor
For the need to wait for further data and messages to tariffs:
“We have not seen this uncertainty for years … If the uncertainty after the right decisions decreases, we have to hold back a number of our decisions, and therefore we do not yet know which direction the monetary policy should best be moved.”
“Before we look at data in detail, is the question of what kind of political decisions are made? Is it the case that we are increased a tariff? Is it that we will increase strong tariffs?
On the April installment reduction of the ECB:
“I think there is a broad consensus [on rates]. But of course people differ on the side. “
“My assessment is that it was not yet clear at the time to what extent [tariff] Countermeasures were taken. Because with countermeasures in Europe, prices can have increased. Without countermeasures, the price pressure is most likely down. And for the time being we don't know the direction. “
In the direction of the interest rates:
“I think if the recent noises over an arrangement [on trade] In this case, it was very likely that it was very likely to be down in terms of prices than the upward trend. However, this can be changed with different decisions and the result from which we can even imagine [the] different direction. For now, no, it will be below. “
“There can be further cuts this year, but the number is still excellent.”
Mārtiņš Kazaks, Governor of the Bank of Latvia
About the opportunity of tariffs:
“With all this uncertainty and vulnerability, this is also the time of the possibilities for Europe.”
“It is a time for Europe to capture all aspects of an economic superpower and become a really full political and geopolitical superpower, and this requires all decisions that have not been made in full in the past.”
“This requires political will to make political courage to make these decisions and to strengthen the European economy and to found their place in a global world.”
On a market reaction on tariffs:
“So far it seems relatively decent … but if you look at the Spillover to Europe, the financial markets work more or less well, we have not seen any spreads that are exploded or the like.”
“But with regard to the macro scenarios, this uncertainty is extremely increased in the sense that, given the possible results, the several scenarios and their probabilities are very similar with the base line [tariff] Scenario.”
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