Members of the media chat before the start of a press conference by Aramco in the Plaza Conference Center in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia on November 3, 2019.
Hamad I Mohammed | Reuters
Saudi Aramco's net profit in the first quarter fell by 5% compared to the previous year compared to the previous year.
The net income for the three months to March 31 was $ 26 billion, compared to $ 27.3 billion for the same period last year. The number was slightly above the expectations of the analysts of 25.3 billion US dollars.
Aramco announced his free cash flow for the quarter with $ 19.2 billion, which has 22.8 billion US dollars in the first quarter of 2024 and cash flow from operating activities of $ 31.7 billion compared to $ 33.6 billion in the previous year.
The figures signal a persistent burden on the balance of the Saudi State oil giant, since the crude oil prices do not show any signs of relaxation and slow the global demand in accordance with the trade pressure.
In March, the company announced that its performance-based dividend distribution for the fourth quarter of 2024 to $ 200 million-compared to $ 10.2 billion in the second quarter of $ 200 million for the first quarter of this year.
The basic dividend of the first quarter without the performance -oriented distributions rose by 4.2% to $ 21.1 billion compared to the previous year. In total, however, the dividend fell from $ 31 billion in the same period of the previous year to $ 21.36 billion because the performance-bound element was reduced.
“The global trade dynamics influenced the energy markets in the first quarter of 2025, with economic uncertainty influencing oil prices,” said Amin Nasser, CEO of Aramco, in an explanation that accompanied the winning report.
“In this context, the robust financial performance of Aramco has once again shown the unique scale of the company, its reliability and flexibility, the value of its low-cost operations … Such periods also underline the importance of disciplined capital planning and execution, while we continue to have a long-term view.”
Nasser added: “In volatile times, Aramco underpins both our financial performance and our sustainable and advanced basic dividend.”
Bärische oil market ahead
The massive reduction of the dividend facilitates the pressure on Aramco itself, but means less income for the Saudi government, since it is expanded due to costly mega projects and lower oil prices and is exposed to debt debt.
The kingdom also limited its oil turnover potential by maintaining the months of coordinated Opec+ production cuts to stabilize the market. This guideline changed dramatically after Saudi Arabia and some of his Opec+allies announced a shock acceleration for production increases in April, even when the markets and crude oil prices refuel on the news of the global tariffs imposed by the USA.
At the beginning of May, OPEC+ again increased its production goal for June by 411,000 barrels per day of the second month in a row, in which the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels, which had been available since the beginning of 2024, accelerated per day.
Banks and energy agencies have steadily downgraded their oil price prospects for the year, which expects large quotes and weak demand. In the most recent forecast of the US Energy Information Administration, Brent Rohöl is an average of $ 65.85 per barrel this year, while Morgan Stanley reduced the prize view of $ 62.50 per barrel in the second half of this year, which is due to the previous forecast of the bank for $ 5 per barrel.
In the second half of 2025, Morgan Stanley also forecast a flood of market of up to 1.1 million barrels per day – an increase of 400,000 BPD compared to the previous surplus call.
Goldman Sachs sees an average of $ 60 per barrel in the rest of 2025, compared to $ 63 and compared to $ 58 before 56 per barrel, compared to $ 58.
Saudi Arabia needs to be oil for more than 90 US dollars per barrel to compensate for its budget, so that the international monetary fund estimates. Goldman Sachs warned in mid-April that Brent crude oil with $ 62 per barrel-sine price forecast could more than double from 2024 of 2024 of $ 30.8 billion.
“In Saudi Arabia, we estimate that we will probably see that the deficit from around 30 to 35 billion US dollars increases to around 70 to 75 billion US dollars if the oil prices remained around 62 US dollars this year,” said Farouk Soussa, Mena economist at Goldman Sachs. The forecast of the bank is now at 60 USD per bar.
“That means borrowing, probably more cuts for expenses. It probably means more sales of assets, all of this,” Soussa told CNBC last month. “And this will affect domestic financial conditions and possibly even internationally.”
Comments are closed.