Heavy traffic is backed up on Interstate 275 South as residents evacuate St. Petersburg, Florida, ahead of Hurricane Milton, USA, October 7, 2024.
Octavio Jones | Reuters
According to leading Wall Street analysts, Hurricane Milton could cause more than $50 billion in damage and, in a worst-case scenario, leave behind $175 billion or more in damages.
This would add to the carnage already wrought by Hurricane Helene and could represent a record-breaking trail of destruction.
“Although it is too early to make estimates of insured losses, a major hurricane in one of Florida's most densely populated regions could result in mid-tens of billions of dollars in damage,” Jefferies stock analyst Yaron Kinar and others said in a note. “Some estimate that a once-in-100-year event brings in $175 [billion] Losses from landing in the Tampa area and $70 [billion] in case of losses in the [Fort] Myers Region.”
The extent of the potential is difficult to estimate and depends on timing and location, with landfall closer to Fort Myers being less costly.
For a historical comparison, analysts only need to look back two years, when Hurricane Ian struck near Fort Myers as a Category 4 storm, leaving more than $50 billion in damage. Ian was considered a 1 in 20 year event.
“If Milton's path through the more developed Tampa region continues, the potential losses could be greater,” Kinar said.
Milton is also currently in Category 4 but could weaken until its full strength is felt.
Wells Fargo noted that “the market appears to be pricing in a loss of over $50 billion (more than Ian) at this point.” The company set a broad range for the potential loss, ranging from $10 billion to $100 billion. Dollar lies.
The region has already been shaken – Helene ripped through the region 12 days ago, leaving behind devastation that Moody's estimated on Tuesday at around $11 billion. In addition to the property damage, Moody's estimates that the National Flood Insurance Program is expected to suffer losses in the order of $2 billion.
The company's analysts have not yet estimated the potential damage from Milton.
Kiki Keen and his father Clinton Keen walk among the rubble of their family's beach house after Hurricane Helene in Horseshoe Beach, Florida, USA, September 28, 2024.
Marco Bello | Reuters
“Hurricane Helene is by far the most impactful event of the current 2024 hurricane season, although this could change quickly with Severe Hurricane Milton set to hit Florida in the coming days,” said Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer at Moody's.
Moody's also noted that many in the worst-hit regions where Helene struck do not have flood insurance, “meaning that the majority of the damage will be uninsured and the economic property damage will far outweigh the insured loss.” said Firas Saleh, director of the US Inland Flood Models company.
Milton weakened a bit Tuesday but still had winds of 145 mph. It is expected to reach Tampa on Wednesday morning, bringing storm surges of 10 to 15 feet to Tampa Bay.
While the danger and damage to the region is expected to be enormous, the storm does not pose the same threat to the neighboring states that hit Helene.
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