From THE DAILY SCEPTIC
by Chris Morrison
Ocean surface temperatures are falling rapidly around the world, and scientists are reportedly baffled by the speed of the recent decline. Less baffling was when the oceans were “boiling” for the past two years. Plebs flying to Benidorm for an annual holiday causing “global warming” was a popular explanation, although the mainstream media put it in marginally more polite terms. For nearly two years, that boiling ocean cliche was a reliable stand-in for any alarmist pusher promoting net-zero madness. But expect that scaremongering, along with coral reefs, polar bears and Arctic sea ice, to be put on hold for a while. It's very likely that no one in the mainstream media will report that the oceans are cooling at a remarkably dramatic rate. There will be few scaremongering arguments to draw attention to this inconvenient news.
Until recently, the sea surface temperature (SST) chart below, showing measurements from the Arctic down to the Antarctic, was rarely found outside of public print media.
This year, the temperature (black line) stagnated until April, while the orange line showed a significant increase in 2023. After that, it fell more sharply than the previous year and is now 0.2 °C lower.
In the Atlantic, the turnaround was even more dramatic. Temperatures have been falling rapidly since May, and in the central equatorial region they are up to 1°C colder than the average for this time of year. The American weather service NOAA points out that the high SSTs at the beginning of the year were the strongest warm event since 1982. The rapid transition from warm to cold SST anomalies (current temperatures compared to a longer past trend) is remarkable. “Never before in the observational record has the eastern equatorial Atlantic switched so quickly from one extreme event to the next,” notes NOAA.
It's not unusual for waters in these parts of the Atlantic to cool during the summer months as seasonal southerly winds pull surface water away from the equator, exposing deeper, colder water. This process is called “upwelling,” but this year it coincided with a weakening of the trade winds that should have led to warmer anomalies. “So far, these atmospheric conditions … remain quite puzzling.” NOAA says it will need to dig deeper to uncover the exact causes of this “seemingly unusual event.”
These days, of course, we must welcome any outbreak of scientific head-scratching on the otherwise “sedentary” climate issue. Temperatures are suddenly dropping and scientists seem to have no idea why. Yet temperatures are rising and it's all because of global warming and humanity must immediately return to a pre-industrial social and economic hellhole. In fact, scientists have little idea how much of the weather suddenly changes and how the ocean and atmosphere warm and cool. Over 100 supercomputer models are simply unable to explain natural fluctuations in a chaotic, nonlinear atmosphere. The fact that some scientists are baffled when temperatures drop but full of alarm when they rise says it all.
It's not just the Atlantic where surface temperatures are falling. In the Pacific, a strong natural El Niño variation that warms the ocean and affects weather across the planet has dissipated. The higher SST anomalies recorded last year have fallen sharply, as shown by the latest figures from NOAA below. The blocks record the anomaly on a rolling three-month basis, with the last reading of 0.2°C relating to May, June and July 2024. As the latest figures show, along with records going back much further, there is nothing unusual about the recent changes in SSTs due to El Niño. It is shameful how the numbers have been relentlessly used to raise unnecessary alarm bells and fears around the world. Everyone from UN Secretary-General Antonio “Global Boiling” Guterres to climate comedian “Jim” Dale of GB News should hang their heads in shame.
The recent El Niño was strong, although the natural bias in the Celsius anomaly record was not as large as that of a previous El Niño around 2015-16. Over the past 25 years, all global temperature increases – apart from those added retrospectively by government-funded calculation institutes – occurred around the same time as the formation of El Niño. Strong fluctuations were recorded in 1998, 2016 and 2024. As we have seen, alarmists have taken full advantage of the changes brought about by the recent El Niño effect, particularly the increased ocean temperatures. As with most natural fluctuations, this process is reversed – what goes up usually comes down.
According to NOAA, sea surface temperatures are now below long-term trends at three of the four locations around the Pacific used to determine the El Niño phenomenon. Temperatures have also dropped significantly in many parts of the Pacific, down to 300 meters, as shown in the graph below for the central and eastern regions.
In the meantime, consider narrative messengers like the BBC's Georgina Rannard. Last August, she claimed that while scientists knew the ocean surface would continue to warm due to greenhouse gas emissions, “they are still looking closely at why temperatures have risen so much above previous years.”
What a difference a few months make in the climate alarmist scene.
Chris Morrison is the environment editor of the Daily Sceptic.
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