Reposted from a NOAA email.
May 20, 2021 The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is forecasting another above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic. Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-average season, a 30% chance of a nearly normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-average season. However, experts do not expect the historic extent of storm activity in 2020.
For 2021, a probable range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 miles per hour or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 miles per hour or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected. NOAA has 70% confidence in these areas. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.
“Now is the time for the communities along the coast and inland to prepare for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,” said Minister of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “NOAA’s experts are ready to provide communities with life-saving early warnings and forecasts that will also help minimize the economic impact of storms.”
Last month, NOAA updated the statistics that were used to determine when the hurricane season was above, near or below average compared to the previous climate record. Based on this update, an average hurricane season creates 14 named storms, 7 of which become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
Conditions for El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are currently in neutral, with the possibility of La Nina returning later in hurricane season. “ENSO-Neutral and La Nina support the conditions associated with the continued high activity era,” said Matthew Rosencrans, senior seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Expected above-average warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean, weaker trade winds in the tropical Atlantic and an intensified West African monsoon are likely to affect overall activity this year.” NOAA scientists continue to study how climate change affects the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones.
“While NOAA scientists don’t expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to destroy a community,” said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator. “With significant improvements to our computer models, new observation techniques, and the know-how, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are well prepared to deliver the life-saving projections we all depend on during this and every hurricane season.”
In order to continuously improve the hurricane forecast, NOAA has made several updates to products and services that will improve the hurricane forecast during the 2021 season.
- National Hurricane Center forecasters are now using an improved probabilistic storm surge model – known as the P-Surge – that includes improved information on tropical cyclone wind structure and storm size information that provides better predictability and accuracy. This upgrade extends the P-Surge forecast guide lead time from 48 to 60 hours in high confidence situations.
- NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory will use its largest selection of unscrewed air and water systems to collect data to help improve hurricane intensity forecasting and forecasting models. New drones will be launched from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, which will fly into the lower part of hurricanes, and in the ocean, saildrons, hurricane gliders, global drifters, and air-usable technologies – called ALAMO swimmers – will track different parts of the cycle of tropical storms .
Last year’s record season is a reminder to anyone living in coastal regions or areas flooded by inland rains to prepare for the 2021 hurricane season.
“With hurricane season starting on June 1st, now is the time to prepare for and improve disaster resilience in our communities,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “Visit Ready.gov and Listo.gov to learn and take the steps to prepare yourself and others in your household. Download the FEMA app to sign up for a variety of notifications and access preparation information. Get flood insurance to protect your greatest asset, your home. And please encourage your neighbors, friends and colleagues to prepare for the coming season as well. ”
NOAA has also released seasonal hurricane outlooks for the basins in the east and central Pacific and will provide an update of the Atlantic outlook in early August, just before the season’s peak.
Visit FEMA’s Ready.gov to prepare for the start of hurricane season, and visit the National Hurricane Center website at hurricanes.gov throughout the season for updates on clocks and warnings.
| NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the earth’s environment from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, as well as to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Twitter, Facebook and our other social media channels. Visit our news and features page. |
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