“Nice scientific breakthrough”… Scientists “getting nearer to predicting the North Atlantic local weather” – what’s improper with that?
Reposted from the NoTricksZone
By P. Gosselin on May 28, 2021
A team of scientists believe they have made a breakthrough in forecasting, suggesting that the NAO is indeed very predictable.
Winter temperatures in Europe in particular are modulated by the North Atlantic atmospheric pressure pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
As the name suggests, it describes the natural fluctuations in the difference in air pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. These fluctuations control the strength and direction of the westerly winds and the location of the storm tracks over the North Atlantic and thus much of the European weather. It has nothing to do with CO2.
Promise of greater skill in seasonal forecasts
The ability to predict these fluctuations in the months ahead would of course be a very useful tool for agriculture, trade, and general preparedness.
Now the German Die kalte Sonne reports in its 40th video how researchers have achieved a “breakthrough” in predicting the NAO. In a recent article in Nature entitled, “The North Atlantic Climate Is Far More Predictable Than Models Suggest,” by Smith et al.
Breakthrough: NAO very predictable
The large research team evaluated climate model predictions from the past six decades and showed that “decadal fluctuations in the North Atlantic winter climate are actually very predictable, despite the lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictability of raw model results. ”
The authors say current models underestimate the predictable signal of the North Atlantic Oscillation by a full order of magnitude.
Image: Smith et al., Nature.
The scientists now hope to “deliver robust NAO forecasts in the future,” reports Die Kalte Sonne. No connection with trace gas CO2 is mentioned.
In September 2020, an article by Lüdecke et al. The correlation of AMO, NAO and sunspots with European temperatures for the period 1901–2015 and found a strong relationship between the NAO and temperatures in Central / Northern Europe from December to March.
In April 2021, another paper by Luedecke et al., “Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African precipitation” showed how climate variability in Africa is related to natural oceanic and solar cycles.
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