New examine defies alarmists and finds “no important adjustments” between present and future cyclone power – so?
Reposted from the NoTricksZone
By P. Gosselin on July 10, 2021
Good news: a warmer, probably tamer climate will show newer scientific evidence in the future. A new study does not predict a future increase in tropical storm energy.
Many government-funded climate researchers claim that tropical cyclones are getting worse and that we have to reckon with one charged storm after another in the future – because humans heat the climate with carbon dioxide emissions.
But as we noted here yesterday, Zoe Phin figured out that for the past 25 years, hurricanes weren’t associated with this dubious doomsday science. Now a new study confirms that this will continue.
Image cropped from The cold sun.
The German side Die kalte Sonne (DkS) presents its 49th video today on the subject of climate and energy with tropical storm energy.
Present and future scenario
In this segment, DkS cites a new study from the Geophysical Research Letters, in which a team of scientists led by Philip Kreussler used three different global climate models to study the integrated kinetic energy of tropical cyclones, which is closely related to their damage potential .
No significant changes
They compared cyclone-integrated kinetic energy between current conditions and a projected future climate scenario.
The results of the high-resolution models left little uncertainty: “No amplification of tropical storms,” reports Die kalte Sonne.
The summary in plain language of the paper:
We find that increasing the horizontal model resolution results in smaller and more intense storms, but that the range of integrated kinetic energy generated by the models remains similar in both configurations. On the other hand, the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean in the models tends to reduce the size and intensity of the storms, resulting in lower integrated kinetic energy. Comparison of the integrated kinetic energy of the cyclone between the current conditions and a projected one The future climate scenario did not indicate any significant changes between the two periods. “
But can we trust the models?
But these are just model results and climate models are mostly wrong, skeptics like to say, and that’s why we should reject these tropical energy models as we reject climate models that show warming and decline, right? Not really. Some models seem to do a really good job and are actually compared to real observations. And if significant deviations are found, the models are revised – or simply scrapped.
It turns out that the Kreussler et al. goes well with what we’ve observed over the past three decades: decreasing or steady total energy of tropical storms. You seem to be on the right track.
Image: Dr. Ryan Maue