MWP 1.5 °C hotter than 1900 – says HH Lamb – are you in control with that?

Not many people know that

By Paul Homewood

The central England temperature series is the longest in existence, but still only goes back to 1659, roughly the depth of the Little Ice Age, and so tells us little of any real significance.

However, there are many very real temperature measurements that go back much further – and I'm not referring to the fraudulently used tree rings and the like.

HH Lamb published this diagram in his 1977 book “Climate: Past, Present and Future”:

Note that these are not Lamb's own calculations; They are all based on the work of other experts in these fields.

They all concern the summer months.

In general, we expect temperatures in the Middle Ages to be between 1.0°C and 1.5°C higher than in 1900.

To put this into perspective, the increase in July temperatures in the UK since 1900 has been on the order of one degree.

Furthermore, the fact that the tree lines emerged at much higher elevations means that the medieval warmth wasn't just a temporary thing – a strange year, decade or so. The heat must have been well established for centuries.

Lamm, of course, can't tell us anything about winter temperatures, although Arctic sea ice records tell their own story. But this evidence strongly suggests that Europe will be just as warm as it is now.


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