Consumers are still eating out, but instead of more expensive entrees, many are ordering more entrees.
As food inflation and affordability dominate the conversation about the U.S. consumer, new restaurant purchasing data shows that even among Americans who go out to restaurants, many people are considering cutting back.
“Orders for entrees are up 20% compared to last year, even as entrees and desserts are largely flat or declining,” said Jim Pazzanese, executive vice president of global strategic sourcing at Buyers Edge Platform, which tracks supply chain data in the foodservice industry. “The shift is visible at the item level,” he said, with some popular entrée sales to restaurant operators seeing growth rates of over 30%.
Top Growing Starters
- Mozzarella sticks, plus 36%
- Pickled chips, up 35%
- Cheese curds, up 33%
- Jalapeno poppers, up 20%
- Cheese Bites, up 17%
Source: Buyers Edge, year-to-date data
Pazzanese calls the current restaurant environment the “appetizer economy.”
Meanwhile, dessert orders are down 2 percent year-over-year, he says.
One reason for the rising popularity of entrees, Pazzanese says, is their connection to promotions, which in the current economic environment are critical to driving Americans’ purchasing behavior.
“Consumers are realizing that entrees are more often tied to promotions and drink specials,” he said. “This makes eating out more affordable.”
He added that purchasing frozen or shelf-stable entrees, the fastest-growing entrees SKUs, also makes economic sense for restaurant operators. “This helps owners and managers reduce waste and manage unpredictable demands,” Pazzanese said.
“The K-shaped economy we are seeing is reflected in food spending,” said Brian Choi, CEO of the Food Institute.
In the grocery business, he said this is evident in the continued shift to private label as food inflation impacts consumer purchasing.
“The top 10 percent are increasing their spending on novel products and are willing to pay for them, but the vast majority of consumers are leaning toward private label rather than national brands,” Choi said. “Consumers can save between 10 and 20 percent by switching to a private label,” Choi added.
According to a recent Food Institute survey, consumer perception of private label brands has increased significantly over the past five years and is now on par with national brands.
“Albertsons, CostcoAnd Hook “These are just a few examples of companies increasing their shelf space for themselves,” Choi said.
“Save Mart launched a private label for beef, poultry and pork, and Amazon launched Amazon Grocery with many products under $5,” Choi said. “Albertsons expects private label could account for 30 percent of sales.”
In October, Amazon unveiled its own grocery store.
While inflation may be below 2022 highs, food inflation has remained stubborn, according to the Food Institute.
“Food price inflation has increased since mid-2025, with home food prices increasing 1.9 to 2.7 percent year-on-year,” Choi said.
The latest consumer price index for September – the October report was not produced due to the government shutdown and the November report was delayed – showed food prices rose 3.1% year-on-year. Prices for meat, poultry, fish and eggs rose 5.2% last year.
“We expect further growth for private labels, and they are expected to surpass national brands in 2026,” Choi said.
The September Consumer Price Index showed that food-away-from-home inflation was even higher than overall food inflation at 3.7%, with the rate for full-service meals at 4.2%. This leads to restaurants, college and university cafeterias, and convenience stores dispensing more private label brands.
“The $1.5 trillion food-away-from-home industry is increasingly shifting to private label to save money,” said Phil Kafarakis, CEO of IFMA, the food-away-from-home association.
“Tariffs and supply chain issues have led to price increases, particularly for perishable items,” Kafarakis said.
Price relief is not expected any time soon.
“Consumers don’t understand the food supply chain,” Kafarakis said. “It doesn’t correct itself in weeks.”
IMFA expects consumers will see some price relief from tariffs in the spring.
“Consumers don’t know how long it takes to produce beef, and if there is a drought or other issues that impact the supply chain, it takes time to rebuild the supply chain,” Kafarakis said.
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