Is the Gulf Stream actually collapsing? Debunking one other local weather doomsday declare – do you agree?

From the NoTricksZone

By P. Gosselin

The idea that global warming could paradoxically stall the Gulf Stream and plunge Europe into a new cold snap – a scenario popularized by the film “The Day After Tomorrow” – is a powerful narrative.

However, the latest episode of Climate Show (Issue 237) challenges these alarmist predictions and examines the scientific evidence and methods behind the claims. The segment focuses on skepticism surrounding the impending “tipping” of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

Remember how climatologists like it Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) argue that Arctic warming is weakening the AMOC through the influx of fresh water, potentially causing Europe to become colder and drier.

Rahmstorf relied on carefully selected data

For example, a 2021 study co-authored by Rahmstorf suggested that the AMOC was at its weakest point in over a millennium. Rahmstorf was also quoted as predicting that the AMOC could be completely phased out in 50 to 100 years. Nevertheless, there is a sharp refutation by Kilburn and colleagues (2022) in the same journal. This counter study accused Rahmstorf’s team of using “selective” or “cherry-picked” data to reach their conclusion.

The EIKE climate show video presents criticism that questions the reliability of the computer models frequently used by PIK. Engineer and blogger Frank Bosse (Climate News) rejects the PIK models as fundamentally unreliable and susceptible to manipulated data input. It refers to the actual, unfiltered measurement data from the RAPID project. These raw data show that the AMOC fluctuated unspectacularly around a mean between 2004 and 2024, with only one significant anomaly around 2010. This directly contradicts models predicting a dramatic collapse.

Arctic ice: Not melting as quickly as predicted

The EIKE video challenges a 2025 study that further questions the premises of the AMOC collapse theory (which relies on a massive influx of freshwater from melting ice). England et al: The study, which examined apocalyptic melting scenarios, concluded that Arctic sea ice decline has “slowed significantly” over the past two decades.

Crucially, there has been no statistically significant decline in sea ice area in September since 2005.

Diploma

The EIKE video concludes by linking current alarmist methodology to the historical controversy surrounding Michael E. Mann’s 1999 “Hockey Stick Study.” The implication is that the use of selective, unrepresentative data to generate dramatic claims is a recurring pattern in certain climate narratives.

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