IPCC clearly overestimates CO2, “the unhappy state of local weather science” – does that agree?
Reposted from the NoTricksZone
By P Gosselin on February 5, 2021
The climate researcher, geologist Patrice Poyet has published a new e-book: The e-book Rational Climate: Cooler is Riskier. The sad state of climate science and policy.
This is an excellent reference. Using the table of contents, the reader can easily look up the topic that interests him. The e-book has been downloaded over 10,000 times so far.
The 449-page book contains 120 numbers and 177 equations, and concludes that climate change is mostly about political fear and very little based on hard science.
Predictions of the darkness have not come true
According to Poyet, a geologist, the worse climate predictions have been made for 50 years, and none of them have ever come true. For example, despite unsupported claims that the Maldives islands would be submerged by 2050, 97% of them have grown so far for various reasons unrelated to “climate change”.
Also 50 years ago, the first Earth Day encouraged fears of the Ice Age, and the environmentalist Nigel Calder (later a prominent AGW skeptic) warned: “The danger of a new Ice Age must now be next to nuclear war as a likely source of death and misery on a large scale Style represent humanity. “
IPCC ignores the vast majority of science
While IPCC-associated scientists claim that humans are behind the climate change of the past few decades, Poyet’s book shows that this can only be concluded if all other factors are ignored. For example, fig. 12 of his book shows the natural fluctuations observed during the Holocene.
Rather than investigating what is behind the changes in the Holocene, the IPCC is trying to brush it under the rug, and scientists are ignoring them in their models.
CO2 climate sensitivity at the lower end
When it comes to how much of the warming since 1900 is due to CO2, Poyet believes that the climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is closer to that of Lindzen and Choi (2009; 2010) and Soon et al. (2015) – in a range of values from 0.26 ° C to 0.475 ° C since 1900, and that there are still large uncertainties and small numbers.
Such a huge climate driver
Regarding the factor that is the single biggest driver of climate today, Poyet shared that over the centuries the sun has been driving the climate due to its massive heat storage capacity with long-term ocean hysteresis of several decades.
This regime is disrupted by the spells of volcanic activity. When the sun and volcanic activity change randomly, the climate deteriorates, as experienced during the LIA.
Faulty climate models
Poyet believes the models are also inaccurate. “Even small changes in the solar reconstructions, e.g. B. PMOD via ACRIM, lead to massive deviations in the model predictions, ”says Poyet. “Strangely enough, the sun is underestimated in current climate models if it could have had an impact of ± 4.5 W / m2 since 1750 (Judge et al., 2020), compared to a +1.53 W / m2 imbalance which has been due to CO2 since 1900. “
Ice Age in 1500 years?
In addition, the solar mechanisms are far more complex and widespread than the IPCC likes to believe:
Over longer periods of time, “the interglacial glacier cycles, the well-known combination of the 41 kyr inclination cycle and various precession cycles determine the game. This is what will send us back to the Ice Age in about 1,500 years, ”Poyet commented in an email.
Antarctica: no warming in 200 years
On the subject of Antarctica, the geologist presents a table from which it can be seen that no significant temperature trends have changed in the last 200 years:
Future: cooler now
When it comes to what to expect in the next 30 years? Cooler? Warmer? According to Poyet, the current state of climate science does not allow anyone to make reasonable predictions. “It’s kind of like predicting earthquakes. Earthquakes still cannot be predicted. The same applies to climate science. “
He also cites the climate alarmists’ belief that they can tell us the temperature in a century just because they “delusingly” added the CO2 regulator.
“What defines the climate is primarily the rainfall and the thought that they are able to predict a rainfall regime for 100 years is a joke.”
Poyet says his favorite climate model is Ollilas (2017), where he arrives at a temperature drop from 2020 in all scenarios.
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Patrice is a geologist, geochemist, and applied computer scientist with an interest in various fields such as earth and planetary sciences, astronomy, finance and commerce, integration with manufacturing and design, simulation and defense systems. Patrice published 38 articles, mostly in peer-reviewed scientific journals, 6 peer-reviewed books, 6 peer-reviewed chapters in books, 64 articles in peer-reviewed conferences, a D.Sc. Diploma thesis (1986) and 32 scientific and technical reports for demanding public and private clients (e.g. French Navy, EU funded R&D projects, CIEH, etc.) and acted as a reviewer for several R&D projects of the EG.
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