By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
A third of a century has passed since 1990 when the IPCC made its first predictions about global warming. In the 400 months since January 1990, the IPCC’s original predictions of 0.2-0.5°C of warming per decade over the next century (below) have proved grossly overestimated.
In 1990, the IPCC also predicted that a doubling of mid-range CO2 would cause global warming of 3°C – the same warming as projected from a century of anthropogenic emissions from all sources. In 2021, the IPCC projected that warming from doubling CO2 would be 2 to 5 C, with a best estimate of 3 C, 10 times the 1990 decadal predictions.
The realitometer, released each month, shows the real global warming equivalent per century since January 1990 from the University of Alabama at Huntsville monthly satellite temperature dataset, compared to the range of the IPCC predictions and to the mid-range of 3.9° C hundred years ago -equivalent warming predicted in the CMIP6 models.
The realitometer shows an equivalent real warming of just 1.33°C/century over a third of a century. The CMIP6 models’ mean prediction of 3.9°C therefore turns out to be a shocking excess of 293% compared to real warming. The IPCC’s 2-5°C projections range from 150% to 375% of real warming. But since then, the IPCC has not scaled back its predictions, first made in 1990, to bring them anywhere within the realm of observed reality.
IPCC based its predictions in 1990 on four emission scenarios AD. Scenario A was the “business as usual” scenario. A significant increase in annual emissions compared to 1990 was assumed. Scenario B predicted no increase in annual emissions as of yet compared to 1990. In fact, annual emissions have increased by more than half since 1990. Follow business-as-usual Scenario A closely. But the warming predicted under Scenario A simply isn’t happening.
The realitometer relies on satellite-measured temperature anomalies because the data is not contaminated like the terrestrial datasets by the urban heat island effect, direct warming from urban heat emission that is insufficiently corrected.
UAH v.6 instead of other satellite datasets (RSS v.4, NOAA v.4 and Washington U v.1) is used because, as Andy May pointed out here in a respected column, only UAH corrected the wrong data from the older satellite instruments NOAA-11 to NOAA-14 and because the UAH data after this correction agrees with the radiosonde data much better than any other satellite data sets, an independent measure.
Month after month, the Realitometer will show how absurdly exaggerated the official global warming predictions were and are, on which easily manipulated governments – only in western countries – have based their economy-destroying net-zero policies. This policy is based on the notion that there will be almost three times as much global warming in the mid-range as there has been up to now. Yet not a single mainstream news outlet has reported on the astonishingly large prediction-to-reality ratio.