Guest contribution by Willis Eschenbach
There’s a new study using previously overlooked or opaque sea level records to extend the UK sea level record to 1832. It offers an interesting look at the question of a possible acceleration in sea level records. The study is called “Changes in the mean sea level in Great Britain over the past 200 years”. The data are available in Appendix A of the study.
Here are their results:
Is there an acceleration in this dataset? The problem with this question is that it is well known that there are long-term cycles in the tides, with periods as long as 50 years. Given that, what can we say about this record?
Well, it’s clear that there was a rapid acceleration around 1890. It’s good that people weren’t hyperventilating about the so-called “CLIMATE EMERGENCY !!!” at the time they claimed that their case had been fully proven …
However, the acceleration of the 1890s only lasted a couple of decades. Thereafter the increase was roughly linear until 1950.
Then there was a slight deceleration until around 1980 and a slight acceleration since then.
The problem is that the alarmists look at the record, trim it to start in 1950, and then loudly proclaim that the UK record is showing a dangerous acceleration of 0.045mm / year per year. What is 100% true mathematically, and as the graph above shows, is 100% false in the bigger world
At the current rate of UK sea level rise, the total rise will be 6.3 in. (160 mm) by 2100. However, with the false “sea level acceleration”, the rise would be more than twice as much as 340 mm (13.4 in).
So this is the latest in the world of sea level … still no evidence of any claimed long-term acceleration.
Now I would leave it there. For mathematics, the mathematical acceleration is the so-called “second derivative” of a data set. So I thought I’d look at the year-to-year acceleration in the dataset above. Here is the result:
Depending on the time period you choose, you can say the UK historic sea level record has positive acceleration, negative acceleration (deceleration) or no acceleration.
In other words … the endless claims of a long-term acceleration in sea level rise are absolutely not visible in the UK historical record.
I make my way to the sea, to Bodega Bay, where my polling station is for today’s special elections. The ocean is my longtime friend, it’s always good for my spirit. Karen Blixen (with the pseudonym Isak Dinesen) wrote: “The cure for everything is salt water: sweat, tears or the sea”.
Works for me.
Kind regards to all,
w.
PS: I can defend my own words. I cannot defend your interpretation of my words. When leaving a comment, please include the exact words you are talking about. Many Thanks.
Like this:
Loading…
Comments are closed.