Everyone seems to be ready for the large inflation report on Friday. This is what to anticipate

A shopper looks at products at a grocery store in West Milton, Ohio, on Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025.

Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Friday’s release of September’s consumer price index report is pretty much the only game in town for a data-hungry Wall Street this month, raising the chances that it will be a market-moving event.

While the actual numbers are expected to be roughly in line with recent months, the lack of official economic reports due to the government shutdown means even a slight deviation could have an outsized impact.

“Given that we haven’t received any government data in the recent past, I think all of the market’s focus and attention will be on this one report,” said Troy Ludtka, senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “This will be the report to end all reports.”

However, as far as the Wall Street consensus goes, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI release appears to be more of the same.

Economists polled by Dow Jones expect monthly totals to rise 0.4% from a month ago, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.1%, or 0.2 percentage points above August levels. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.3% and an annual increase of 3.1%, both in line with August levels. The annual rate would be the highest since January.

What the Street will be watching for is any deviation in readings that suggests inflation is hotter or colder than expected. The focus will also be on the details of what impact President Donald Trump’s tariffs are having on prices.

The report, scheduled to be released on October 15, will be the last major economic measure before the Fed’s policy meeting, which ends on Wednesday. The BLS has called workers back because it uses the CPI as a benchmark for Social Security cost of living adjustments.

Ambiguity

Economists at Goldman Sachs expect little change in car prices, an increase in auto insurance and a decline in airfares. On the tariff issue, the company said in a statement that it expects “upward pressure” in categories such as communications, home furnishings and leisure, but only a 0.07 percentage point increase in core inflation.

However, data is generally a black box with much of the government closed, raising some questions about the reliability of the CPI.

“We don’t have complete clarity due to a lack of key data points that the market depends on due to the government shutdown,” said Vishal Khanduja, head of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “That increases the uncertainty a little.”

Indeed, investors have been hesitant of late, pushing averages across major stock markets to record levels despite continued volatility in daily moves.

Geopolitical uncertainty is the reason for the fears. The ever-changing tariff landscape is fueling concerns that higher prices could slow otherwise surprisingly strong economic growth. The CPI report should help answer at least some of these questions, despite concerns about how clean the data will be due to disruptions related to the shutdown.

That applies to both markets and the Federal Reserve, which holds a policy meeting next week where officials are widely expected to agree to another quarter-percentage point rate cut.

“In terms of market impact, it would take a significant upside surprise for the market to change its mind about another rate cut,” said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank.

Aside from the frequent trade war swings, markets were buoyed by another strong earnings season. Before the lockdown, economic data had also shown a surprisingly resilient economy, with gross domestic product at nearly 4% in the third quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed.

While it will take some consistency to shake this narrative, a surprise from CPI could be just the thing.

“I would expect volatility if the number comes in higher than expected,” said Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors. “I would view this as a buying opportunity as the economy is strong, the Fed is embarking on a rate cutting cycle, earnings per share are growing at double digits and the fourth quarter is seasonally the strongest quarter of the year.”