Empty cabinets, truck institutions result in a recession in Apollo's commerce conflict time bar

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The economic effects of the tariffs raised by the Trump government will soon become apparent for everyday Americans and, according to Apollo Global Management, lead to a recession this summer.

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, determined a schedule in a presentation for customers who showed when the effects of tariffs announced by President Donald Trump could achieve the US economy. Based on the transport time for goods from China, the US consumers could find out in their local shops in the local shops next month.

“In a few weeks, the result will be empty shelves in US stores and covid-like bottlenecks for consumers and for companies that use Chinese products as intermediate goods,” Slok wrote in a reference to customers on Friday.

Tariff to the recession time bar:

• April 2: The tariffs announced the announcement that containers' hip departures from China slows down in the USA
• Earlier to mid-mai: containers hips to US connections will come to a standstill
• Center to the end of May: The demand for the truck will come to a standstill, which leads to empty shelves and lower sales for companies
• At the end of May to early June: layoffs in the truck and retail industry
• Summer 2025: recession

Source: Apollo Global Management

In order to support the idea that the US economy is about to be recessed, the presentation also contained data that has decreased greatly in recent weeks.

The Trump government has some of the tariffs announced on April 2, but has the tasks in China even higher. The Finance Minister Scott Bessent confirmed on Monday in the “Squawk Box” from CNBC that the current tariff with Beijing is “not sustainable”. The taxes for goods from China are now subject to an interest rate of 145%.

China is not the only source of consumer goods, but plays a major role in the US economy. In 2024, the United States imported 438.9 billion US dollars from China from China, according to the US trade representative's office, which was placed on the list of trading partners directly behind Mexico and via Canada.

While many on Wall Street are now saying that a recession for the United States is probably in 2025, Slok predictions are on the more pessimistic side. Bessent said that the administration did not necessarily expect a recession due to the trade negotiations.

There are also some references to a “pull forward” in orders before the announcement of the tariffs, which could last longer on the shelves than the Apollo time plans present.

“Do not expect any empty shelves yet – – – [year to date] The share is still off and the demand slows down, “said Aneesha Sherman Annesha Sherman in Bernstein on Monday in a note to the customers.

– Michael Bloom from CNBC contributed the reporting.

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