Employers probably created extra jobs in February, however economists say there may be nonetheless no restoration

A worker wearing a protective mask packages a pizza at a Costco store in San Francisco, Calif., On Wednesday, March 3, 2021.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Attitudes likely improved in February when more of the economy reopened, but winter weather could have hampered some activity.

Economists expect 210,000 employees to be hired in February, compared with just 49,000 in January, according to Dow Jones.

The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 6.3%, but levels are likely to fall further in the coming months as more people are vaccinated and service jobs return.

Employment growth expectations are broad. Citigroup economists expect 410,000 employees to be hired in February.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release the employment report on Friday at 8:30 p.m. ET.

“After two months of weaker monthly employment reports, we expect a solid rise in February jobs of 410,000. The February payroll reference period is about to reopen after increasing activity restrictions and business closings during the winter months. The strength of ours Forecast is related to recruitment of recreational and hospitality workers, “wrote Citigroup economists.

Moderate improvement expected

But Michael Gapen, Barclays’ chief US economist, said he wasn’t expecting as much strength in February.

Gapen said there are signs that the hiring has improved as of mid-February and he expects only 100,000 new jobs to be added.

“It is fair to expect that the combination of reduced case numbers and general relaxation of restrictions will improve the dynamism of the labor market. Moving away from adverse weather conditions can lead to an increase in employment in March,” he said .

“I think December was the bottom,” said Gapen. “January was a little better and February and March should be a little better. I think the debate is how much did February versus March.”

He reckons the weather will be a factor in the report and construction and construction contracts are likely to be affected.

“I still think the most important numbers are vaccination numbers, and jobs will come after that,” Gapen said. “I think the vaccine information is still first-order information, and things like employment are the validating factors.”

Gapen said the vaccinations slightly exceeded expectations and he expects herd immunity by the third quarter, depending on whether variants of the virus hinder efforts to contain the pandemic.

He said the economy should get back to normal by the third quarter, but the economy is still declining by about 10 million jobs and hiring needs to be accelerated.

“I think we will see above-average job growth in the second and third quarters. I’m saying something on the order of 500,000 a month in the second quarter and 750,000 a month in the third quarter,” he said.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said a year ago that February was the last month before the pandemic for recruitment and that the unemployment rate was just 3.5%. She expects only 150,000 additional jobs in February of this year.

“This is the one-year benchmark. It’s a long way from home,” she said. Last April, more than 20 million jobs were lost in one month.