US President Donald Trump announces that his administration has concluded a contract with the elite law firm Skadden, ARPS, SLATE, MEAGHER & FLOM during a conspiratories in the Oval Office of the White House on March 28, 2025 in Washington.
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With the decision day, which branches off this week for President Donald Trump's latest tariffs, Goldman Sachs expects aggressive tasks from the White House to increase inflation and unemployment and to bring economic growth to an almost standard stand.
The investment bank now assumes that the tariffs will increase tariffs by 15 percentage points. The previous “risk case” scenario, which is now more likely when Trump announces mutual tariffs on Wednesday. However, Goldman noticed that product and land exclusions will finally reach the increase to 9 percentage points.
When the new trading movements come into force, the Goldman business team under the head of global investment research Jan Hatzius sees a broad, negative impact on the economy.
In a note published on Sunday, the company said: “We continue to believe that the risk of tariffs on April 2 is greater than many market participants who were previously accepted.”
Inflation above the finish
In inflation, the company sees its preferred nuclear measure without food and energy prices and reached 3.5% in 2025, an increase in the percentage point by 0.5 percent compared to the previous forecast and well above the 2% price of the Federal Reserve.
This in turn is associated with a weak economic growth: only an annual growth rate of 0.2% in the first quarter and 1% for the whole year if it is measured from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025, which is due to a point compared to the previous forecast by 0.5 percentage points. In addition, the Wall Street company now sees unemployment of 4.5%, an increase in the percentage point by 0.3 percent compared to the previous forecast.
Together, Goldman expects a recession of the recession of 35% over the next 12 months, compared to 20% in the previous prospects.
The forecast draws a growing chance of a stagflation economy with low growth and high inflation. The last time the USA saw stagflation was in the late 1970s and early 80s. At that time, the Fed led by Paul Volcker dramatically increased interest rates and sent the economy into a recession when the central bank decided to combat inflation about the support of economic growth.
Three installments
Goldman's economists don't see this time. In fact, the company now expects the FED to reduce its benchmark rate this year three times, with the quarter -percent point of the point from an earlier projection of two interest rate cuts.
“We pulled the lonely 2026 reduction in our Fed forecast in 2025 and now expect three consecutive cuts in July, September and November, which would leave our prediction of our terminal rate at 3.5% -3.75%,” said the Goldman economists and today referred from 4.25% to 4.50% to the Fed Fund Rate from 4.25% to 4.50% today.
Although the extent of the latest tariffs is not yet known, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that Trump is pushing his team into more aggressive taxes, which could mean a general bar for US trading partners.
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