CPI inflation report Could 2025: The US inflation will increase by 0.1%

Consumer prices rose less than expected in May, since President Donald Trump's tariffs had no significant influence on inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday.

The consumer price index, a comprehensive measure of goods and services in the extensive US economy, rose by 0.1% a month and took the annual inflation rate to 2.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had searched for 0.2% and 2.4% of the respective readings.

With the exception of food and energy, the core CPI was 0.1% and 2.8% compared to forecasts for 0.3% and 2.9%. The Federal Reserve officials consider Core a better measure of long -term trends, although several concerns about the effects on inflation have recently been expressed.

The annual rate of all-items marked an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to April, while the core was the same.

The persistent weakness of energy prices contributed to compensating for some of the increases, and a handful of other important articles that are expected to have customized jumps, vehicle and clothing prices.

The energy increased by 1% per month, while the new and used vehicle prices recorded corresponding declines of 0.3% and 0.5%. Within energy, gasoline recorded a decrease of 2.6%, which took the decline of the previous year to 12%.

The food rose by 0.3% as well as protection, which the BLS was the “main factor” in the otherwise modest CPI increase. Egg prices decreased by 2.7%, but still rose by 41.5% compared to the previous year. Clothing recorded a decline of 0.4%.

Although protection prices rose a month, the annual increase of 3.9% is the lowest rate since the end of 2021.

With the modest inflation movements, the real average hourly income per month rose by 0.3% and rose by 1.4% compared to the previous year.

“Today's forecasting pressure is soothing – but only to a certain extent,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist of the global strategy at Principal Asset Management. “Tariff-controlled price increases may be transferred to the CPI data for a few more months, so that it is too premature to assume that the price shock does not come about.”

The Börse Futures became positive after the report, while the returns of the Ministry of Finance were lower.

Vice President JD Vance in one post on X asked the Fed to lower interest because the inflation pressure did not come about.

“The president has said this for a while, but it is even clearer: the rejection of the Fed to lower interest rates is monetary grievances,” wrote Vance.

There are trading voltages

The BLS report comes with the Trump administration, which continues its efforts to negotiate trade agreements. In his announcement on April 2, “Liberation Day” that the financial markets shaken, Trump hit 10% universal tasks on US imports and a variety of other so-called mutual tariffs in countries, of which he said that they have used unjustified trading practices.

Most recently, officials from the White House met with Chinese leaders to defuse a blasty trade war between the two nations. Managers from both countries have announced that they are near an agreement on materials for rare earth, such as.

Other nations hit a deal with mutual tasks by the beginning of July, according to an announcement that Trump took a week after the first step.

Officials of the White House insist that tariffs do not cause outstanding inflation, with the expectation that foreign producers would pay a large part of the costs themselves. However, many economists believe that the broad nature of the duties could increase prices in a pronounced manner, with the larger effects in summer probably acting if the supplies have been collected before the tariff was implemented.

The benign inflation values ​​indicate that “the tariffs do not have any major immediate effects because companies use existing inventory or slowly adapt the prices due to the uncertain demand,” said Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, Global CIO of multi-asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “While we later see some price increases for goods, the service prices are expected to remain stable, which indicates that an increase in inflation is likely to be temporary.”

The market prices show that the FED may be considering further interest reductions by at least September, since the political decision -makers rate the effects that the tariffs exert on inflation. Trump has urged the Fed to reduce the rates, while the relaxation of inflation values ​​and signs of slowing down the labor market.

Changes in data acquisition

The evaluation of the number of inflation was complicated by other Trump initiatives.

In order to reduce the federal employee, the administration has opened a setting offer that coincides with the BLS to limit your data acquisition and to expand a process called Imputation in which the models are used to fill out incomplete data. For example, the BLS said last week that from April it “reduced the sample in areas across the country” and suspended the collection in Lincoln, Nebraska as a whole. Provo, Utah; and Buffalo, New York.

“The use of an extended imputation is likely to continue because persistent lack of personnel in the BLS is difficult to close any type of direction effect, but smaller sampling sizes can adhere to greater volatility,” said BNP Paribas analysts.

However, the BLS stated that the steps to the suspends will have “minimal effects” on the overall data recording, although they could affect the subindexes.

Correction: JD Vance is Vice President. An earlier version wrote his name wrote.

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