by David Wojick
This was a quiet cop for the most part and for good reason. None of the big issues that usually make up the drama were originally on the agenda. The omission of the most controversial topics was conspicuously deliberate. But in the end things spiraled out of control and no one knows where things are headed.
The glaring initial omission was probably a Trump effect, because by far the biggest problem is the financing of America and other so-called developed countries for the also so-called developing countries. With America, the leading donor, not at the table, there was little to discuss.
It all started with the agenda being set quickly and without the usual debate. Brazilian COP President Lago simply did not put the big issues on the list. Instead, he scheduled discussion groups to take place by the first Wednesday of the two-week COP period.
Wednesday came and nothing had changed, so the issues were pushed back to Sunday again as the COP was underway. With still no progress, these issues were finally published for formal discussion on the second Wednesday, with just two days to go.
The predictable result was a meaningless jumble of futuristic statements. However, that makes sense since there was never anything significant to decide. That’s why only a few heads of state showed up.
But something big happened along the way. The buzzword that came up was roadmap. In each difficult case, there was a roadmap to get somewhere one day, which was often unspecified. But there were no roads, so no map. A problem-solving roadmap usually establishes methods and milestones. In this case, the only option was to hold more and more meetings.
The big problems were huge dollar funding from America and other developed countries, trade measures, increasing ambitions to reduce emissions, moving away from fossil fuels and adapting.
Trade measures are a relatively new topic. It has to do with the EU and some other countries introducing trade barriers based on emissions from manufacturing. Of course, the coal-burning countries are against it, especially China.
The transition away from fossil fuels was particularly interesting because it emerged from the mass of countries and was met with great resistance. The African group in particular initially insisted that fossil fuel development was essential to their economic development in the short term. This was a refreshing slice of reality shared by many countries.
As the clock ticked down, moving away from fossil fuels became a really big issue. One side, the radicals, wanted a roadmap that would set a global end to the use of fossil fuels by a certain date. The other side simply didn’t want anything like that.
About half of the nearly 200 countries present were on each side. But UN rules say an agreement must be unanimous, so the half was pretty small.
The crazy EU and UK actually led the radicals, insisting right up to the very end that the final agreement had to include this transition. Luckily that wasn’t the case. In fact, there was no mention of fossil fuels, a victory for reality.
Then things get really interesting, possibly critical. A commitment to a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels was not part of the COP 30 agreement, but Brazil promised an initiative outside the UN process, building on a plan supported by Colombia and about 90 other nations.
This sets a wild precedent to say the least. How does this new process work? Does it compete with the UN COP process, which was established in 1992 with a treaty that all participating countries have ratified? Will the new trial decisions have such a legal basis? It could even replace the UN COP process, which many countries consider outdated. How it works is completely undefined.
In short, Brazil has manipulated the COP process to the point that an undefined new process is underway. Stay tuned to CFACT as this strange tragedy unfolds.
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