Cooling within the pipeline? Low photo voltaic exercise, wild fireplace smoke, La Niña all arrange a calming 2022? – Watts with that?
Reposted from the NoTricksZone
By P. Gosselin on August 8, 2021
Here are 3 reasons why global surface temperatures are likely to cool further in the coming year.
1. La Nina again in the forecast
NASA continues to project La Niña conditions through 2022, suggesting strong global time-lag cooling conditions:
The NOAA-ENSO forecast also shows that La Niña terms will prevail again later this year:
Hat tip: Snow fan here
Since the ENSO moved back into the neutral range in the summer, a slight increase in global temperature is to be expected for the beginning of 2022. With a delay of about 8 months, however, global temperatures will tend to cool down by early summer of next year 2022, in response to the coming La Niña – should the ENSO forecasts above prove to be true.
2. Soot filters out sunlight over North America
Another factor that could cool the earth’s surface somewhat in the short term is the massive forest fires in California and elsewhere this summer. Satellite images show that a sun-blocking haze of smoke is spreading over much of North America:
Satellite image of California wildfire releasing large amounts of smoke into the atmosphere. Image August 6, 2021: Geostationary operational environmental satellite 17.
The following graph from July 21 shows how much soot was measured in the atmosphere over the United States and Canada when the wildfires raged:
NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using GEOS-5 data from NASA GSFC’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office and VIIRS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE, GIBS / Worldview and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). Adam Voiland story.
3. Low sunspot activity
The previous sunspot cycle was of little activity and the most recent sunspot activity was very little. In fact, according to SpaceWeatherLove.com, the sun has no spots here right now.
Coming Solar Cycle No. 25 is also expected to be one with low sunspot activity. Such cycles of low activity are associated with periods of cooler surface temperatures.