Guest contribution by Willis Eschenbach
Now that the cherry trees have blossomed in Kyoto this year, I have seen people claim that the cherry blossom record shows the dreaded “Climate Change !!!” and we are all going to die. Here is an example:
Now cherries that bloom earlier on this card mean the temperature is warmer. I looked at this and thought, “Hmmm … why should the cherry trees’ full bloom dates be relatively stable for about a thousand years and then suddenly move earlier in the year?”
The first thing that came to mind? “Population”. As the population of a city increases, the temperature rises within the city limits due to the effect of the “urban heat island”. And the more people there are in the city, the warmer than the surrounding countryside it usually gets.
So I got the cherry blossom dates here. And I dug up and after a lot of frustration and a reasonable pinch of explosives, I got Kyoto population data here and here and here. What I found is that after the Meiji Restoration in 1868, the population of Kyoto grew very quickly.
Below is the result. In contrast to the graph above, I’ve reversed the left vertical axis so the heat is higher in the graph and the colder is lower. May I help you:
As is customary in the world of climate … Things are rarely as simple as people imagine. Are there other factors involved in cherry blossom timing? Absolute – temperature, humidity, rainfall, and changes in tree species must be some of the players in the game … and it seems that the population is among them. No wonder there. Willis’ first climate rule states: “Everything is related to everything else, which in turn is influenced by everything else … except when it is not.”
Here on our spring forest slope with a tiny portion of the ocean in the distance, I spent half the day yesterday with a dig pole and posthole digger trying to find the remains of a rotten 6 “x 6” (150mm x 150mm). Wooden goal post from the ground so I can put in a new one. It was extremely stubborn and held in place by the remains of the concrete in which it was set, as well as a great deal of temporal inertia. Even after I used the digging pole to break the concrete, it still held on.
After way too much sweat, I thought, “You idiot!” And I grabbed my hi-lift jack, threw a strap around the remains of the post and ripped it out of the floor like a rotten tooth …
… Sometimes it takes a while, but I generally get there in the end.
The best for everyone on this wonderfully complex planet,
w
My perennial request: I can defend my words, but not your interpretation of my words. You’re welcome quote the exact words You discuss so that we are clear about your topic.
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