Belief of the employees within the seek for a brand new job hits a file within the New York Fed Survey

In the recent sign of difficulties for the US labor market, confidence in the ability to switch from one job to another has reached a record low, according to a New York Federal Reserve published on Monday.

The respondents of the central bank’s monthly survey on the expectations of consumers for August gave to find a probability of 44.9%, to find another job after they have lost their current one. The reading fell by 5.8 percentage points from the previous month and is in the history of the survey on the lowest until June 2013.

The result also shows the reversal of the “big resignation”, which occurred in 2021-22 when 4.5 million workers per month terminated their jobs and felt good to find new ones. This number was 3.2 million in July, good a few years ago and compared to the same period in 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Consumers feel depressed in relation to the possibilities for finding jobs, and these feelings are completely appropriate,” said Elizabeth Tenant, Senior Economist at Consumer Site Nerdwallet. “It is very difficult to find work now. And it is unlikely that it will be better soon. Employers do not hire much, so that the employees are stuck in the workplace and adhere to their current jobs because the market for job seekers is not cheap.”

Various factors that had played during the Covid pandemic have contributed to influencing the high level of mobility, including a non-agreement of offer requests on the labor market, in which more than two open jobs were for every available worker.

But a job market that has a virtual standstill ended the trend. Although there are not too many signs that employers put workers in a mass conclusion, the attitude has dramatically slowed down. This has caused the workers to get into their work because uncertainty about inflation and economic growth led to the fact that employers were careful when they grow the salary statements.

There are now more workers than job -openings, something that has not been the case since Covid.

Other parts of the FED survey reflect the trend: the likelihood of voluntarily leaving your own job next year changed little, only 0.1 percentage point to 18.9%. At the same time, expectations that the unemployment rate in one year in one year increased to 39.1%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to July and a point above the 12-month average.

The results do not follow a dark number in August.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported only 22,000 new jobs a month on Friday, far below the expectation for 75,000. In addition, the number of June in June was revised to a loss of 13,000 and the first monthly decline since December 2020. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, while a wider level, the discouraged workers and the underemployment increased to 8.1%, both rose to 8.1% since October 2021.

The markets largely expect that the FED has reacted to the labor market with its first interest reductions since December 2024 when it decides on the tariffs on September 17th.