Essay by Eric Worrall
I'm still waiting for the promised climate catastrophe.
In Australia it is already 1.5 degrees hotter
From Bianca Hall
October 31, 2024 – 12:01 am
Average temperatures in Australia have risen by 1.5 degrees for the first time on record, and the world is on track to exceed the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.
That's the latest sobering assessment from scientists and meteorologists at the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, who have been mapping Australia's changing climate for 14 years.
Their latest biennial State of the Climate report, released on Thursday, shows average temperatures continue to rise steadily, while the average number of extreme bushfire days has increased by up to 25 days per year in parts of the country.
Two years ago, temperatures in Australia had risen an average of 1.47 degrees since records began in 1910. This year, average temperatures in Australia have risen by 1.5 degrees, while global average temperatures have risen by 1.2 degrees since “reliable” records began in 1850.
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Read more: https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australia-is-already-1-5-degrees-hotter-20241029-p5kmb1.html
Starting the records in 1910 conveniently ignores what may have been the worst heatwave in Australia's history, the Federation Drought of 1895 to 1903. However, although temperature records prior to 1910 are too unreliable to be included in official records, they are Government climate scientists are confident that recent droughts are getting hotter.
435 people died in a heat wave in 1896 – but scientists believe today's extreme heat events are even hotter
By Sophie Meixner and Daniel Nancarrow
Sat. Dec. 21, 2019
In the late 19th century, Australia was hit by a heatwave so severe that 435 people died and hundreds more were displaced.
Key points:
- In Bourke, NSW, 48.9°C was recorded three times in 1896, with a maximum temperature of 38°C for more than three weeks at a time
- But climate scientists say temperature recording methods in 1896 were flawed and heat waves are hotter today
- They say the high death toll in 1896 was due to the community being more vulnerable to heat events
The 1895-1896 heat wave during the Federation Drought is considered Australia's deadliest heat wave, closely followed by 2009, which recorded at least 432 heat-related deaths.
The town of Bourke lost at least 40 people – 1.6 percent of its population – during the 1896 event, while Sydney authorities reported hospitals at breaking point and pedestrians collapsing in the streets.
Newspaper reports describe temperatures in Bourke reaching 48.9 degrees Celsius on three occasions and the maximum temperature remaining above 38 degrees Celsius for 24 consecutive days.
As Australia experiences a series of intense and record-breaking heatwaves this summer, the 1896 event is sometimes seen as evidence that Australia has always experienced exceptional heat and that the effects of climate change are being exaggerated.
But climate scientists say that's an oversimplification and that the heat waves we're experiencing today are significantly hotter than those in the past.
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A Stevenson screen was not installed at Bourke until August 1908, meaning temperatures could be up to 2°C higher than before.
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Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-21/1896-heatwave-killed-435-climate-scientists-cant-compare-today/11809998
The conclusion from the article above that modern temperature records are strict compared to before ignores many problems with modern temperature records. Australian climate scientist Jennifer Morohasy has waged a long campaign to force the Aussie Bureau of Meteorology to admit they are not perfect.
Whatever the truth about past heatwaves compared to the present, there are signs that Australians are fed up with stoking climate fears. The Greens suffered a major setback in the recent Queensland state election.
Exceeding the 1.5 degree climate catastrophe threshold without anyone noticing is unlikely to add to the dwindling credibility of climate doomsday proclamations.
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