A “Now Hiring” sign hangs in the window of a Denny’s restaurant on November 19, 2025 in Miami, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
The U.S. labor market is showing further signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs increased over the past four weeks, payroll company ADP reported on Tuesday.
Private companies have lost an average of 13,500 jobs per week over the past four weeks, ADP said in a rolling update. That’s an acceleration from the 2,500 jobs lost per week in the last update a week ago.
With the government shutdown still impacting data releases, alternative information like ADP’s is filling the gaps in the economic picture.
Government agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis have released revised schedules, but key reports such as monthly nonfarm payrolls will not be released until December.
Federal Reserve policymakers will not have much of the usual data they use for forecasts when they meet again Dec. 9-10. However, in recent days several officials have advocated for further rate cuts, prompting the market to recalibrate its expectations and now expect a cut at next month’s meeting.
“With the next jobs report now scheduled for Dec. 16 and the consumer price index for Dec. 18, there is little on the calendar that could prevent a cut on Dec. 10,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note to clients on Sunday.
When the releases actually come out, Hatzius expects “alternative indicators to show renewed job losses in October,” although the BLS last week reported better-than-expected payroll growth of 119,000 for September.
The Goldman team expects the Fed to respond with a rate cut in December and two more quarter-percentage point cuts in 2026.
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