Scientists Invent A Methodology To Predict Photo voltaic Flux Flux For Two Years – Watts Up With That?
SKOLKOVO INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (SKOLTECH)
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CREDIT: ESA
Scientists from the Skolkovo Institute for Science and Technology (Skoltech) and their colleagues from the University of Graz and the Kanzelhöhe Observatory (Austria) as well as the European Space Operations Center of ESA developed a method and software called RESONANCE to predict the activity of solar radio flux for 1 – 24 months ahead. RESONANCE will serve to improve the specification of satellite orbits, reentry services, modeling the evolution of space debris and maneuvers to avoid collisions. The research was published in the Astrophysical Journal’s high profile Supplement Series.
Since the launch of Sputnik, Earth’s first artificial satellite, in 1957, more than 41,500 tons of man-made objects have been put into orbit around the sun, earth and other planetary bodies. Since then, most objects such as missile bodies and large pieces of space debris have returned to the earth’s atmosphere uncontrollably, posing a potential threat to people and infrastructure. Predicting the date and time of re-entry is a challenging task, as it involves specifying the density of the Earth’s upper atmosphere, which is heavily dependent on solar activity, which in turn is difficult to predict. The Earth’s atmosphere can get very hot due to solar activity causing expansion, and a satellite can disintegrate in its orbit and fall back on Earth due to the effect known as drag. In addition, there are many pieces of space debris, many of which are very small. If a spaceship unexpectedly changes orbit and even hits a small piece of debris, it is tantamount to hitting a bomb because of its high speed.
An international group of scientists led by Skoltech professor Tatiana Podladchikova developed a new method and software called RESONANCE (“Radio Emissions from the Sun: ONline ANalytical Computer Aided Estimator”), which provides predictions of the solar radio flux at F10.7 and F30 cm with a lead time of 1 to 24 months. The indices F10.7 and F30 represent the flux density of the solar radio emissions at a wavelength of 10.7 and 30 cm, averaged over an hour, and serve as a solar proxy for the ultraviolet solar emission, which heats the upper earth atmosphere. The method combines state-of-the-art physics-based models and advanced data assimilation methods, with the resulting F10.7 and F30 predictions being used as solar radiation in the re-entry forecast tool to further estimate the re-entry time of an object.
“We have systematically assessed the performance of RESONANCE by providing re-entry predictions for past ESA re-entry campaigns for 602 payloads and missile bodies as well as 2,344 objects of space debris that re-invaded during the entire 11-year solar irradiation cycle from 2006 to 2019. The test results showed that the predictions generally obtained from RESONANCE also lead to improvements in the predictions of re-entry epochs and can therefore be recommended as a new operational service for re-entry predictions and other space weather applications, “says lead author and MSc graduate of Skoltech, Elena Petrova, who currently have their Ph.D. Studies at the Center for Mathematical Plasma Astrophysics at the Catholic University of Leuven (KU Leuven).
“The number of re-entered objects is closely related to solar activity: Most objects return during the maximum solar activity phase within the 11-year cycle. Interestingly, the re-entry time of space debris closely follows the evolution of the cycle and reacts instantly to changes in solar activity. At the same time, payloads and missile bodies show a large number of re-entries during the decreasing phase of the cycle, which may be related to the time lag between solar activity and re-entry for large objects, ”says Professor Astrid Veronig, co-author of the study and director of the Kanzelhöhe Observatory at the University of Graz .
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“It is very important to monitor and predict solar activity to meet orbit prediction requirements. For example, Skylab, which was supposed to perform a controlled re-entry in the 1970s, fell uncontrollably to Earth due to inaccurate calculations of air resistance due to solar activity. Another example is the recent launch of the Chinese Long March 5B rocket on May 9, 2021: the remains of the second stage, which carried China’s first space station module, re-entered uncontrollably and landed in the Indian Ocean. Therefore, developing robust and reliable space weather operations services that combine the forefront of research with technical applications is of paramount importance for the protection of space and ground-based infrastructures, as well as the advancement of space exploration. And whatever storms may be raging, we wish everyone good weather in space, ”says Tatiana Podladchikova, assistant professor at the Skoltech Space Center (SSC) and co-author of the research.
The RESONANCE team is currently preparing for operational use as part of a new space weather service for continuous forecasting of solar radio flux activity.
Skoltech is a private international university in Russia. Founded in 2011 in partnership with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Skoltech nurtures a new generation of leaders in science, technology and business, conducts research in breakthrough fields and promotes technological innovation with the aim of solving critical problems facing Russia and face the world. Skoltech focuses on six priority areas: data science and artificial intelligence, life sciences, advanced materials and modern design methods, energy efficiency, photonics and quantum technologies, and advanced research. Web: https://www.skoltech.ru/.
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