Distinctive Macro Vertebrate Endangered by Blood Sports activities and Local weather Change – Watts Up With That?

NEWS RELEASE 1-APR-2021

OKINAWA INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (OIST) GRADUATE UNIVERSITY

Research news

PICTURE: AN ARTISTIC RECOGNITION OF A KANGASKHAN – A TWO METER POKÉMON ENDEM FOR AUSTRALIA. Show more CREDIT: IMAGE BY KATERINA ZAPFE

• The Kangaskhan, Australia’s only endemic species of Pokemon in Pokemon Go, is often poached in its natural habitat by Pokemon trainers for combat competitions
• Researchers used various algorithms to model species distribution to predict how climate change, in addition to pre-existing man-made pressures, would affect the distribution of the Kangaskhan in the future
• Additionally, they found a way to measure how biased commonly used species distribution models are, and found that some models are so biased that their results were not affected by the data at all
• The researchers compared these results with previously published models for hundreds of species of Australian mammals and found similar biases
• This research has identified specific problems with current species distribution models and has given scientists new statistical tools to refine them in the future

Kangaskhan (Garura kangaskhani) are two-meter tall Pokémon that are endemic to Australia. Although commonly found in cities and other urban areas, there is a lack of information on their basic biology and wider distribution. Much of what is known is based on anecdotes from the public, especially from unlicensed breeders, many of whom are not trained in scientific research. Today it is believed that Kangaskhan is threatened by frequent adult and egg poaching. Poaching is primarily motivated by the demand that these animals be used in fighting competitions. That pressure, coupled with the fact that climate change is expected to have a major impact in Australia over the next few decades, has created dire prospects for this majestic species of Pokemon.

Now, researchers from the Department of Biodiversity and Biocomplexity at the Graduate University of the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology (OIST) have done an in-depth study of how climate change affects the existence of a suitable habitat for Kangaskhan. This study was published today in Methods in Ecology and Evolution.

“Aside from the fact that it appears to prefer partially cloudy weather, very little is known about the species’ climatic preferences,” said lead author Dr. Dan Warren, who previously worked as a researcher in Australia. “This makes it difficult to gauge the Kangaskhan’s response to environmental change, or how climate change, along with the effects of poaching, might affect the species’ long-term survival. For this research, we used several well-known modeling methods to gain some insight into how threatened Kangaskhan really is. “

Using data originally recorded by hobbyists and professional trainers seeking Kangaskhan for exploitation, the researchers sought to shed light on the future of this species. Species distribution models were the obvious way to go. These models are a common way for scientists to predict changes in the availability of a suitable habitat for a species in response to estimated shifts in environmental parameters such as precipitation, humidity, temperature, and vegetation cover.

In terms of results, depending on the algorithms used, the models differed in what they predicted for the future of the Kangaskhan. Three of the models predicted a decrease in habitat suitability, but differed significantly in the magnitude of this decrease. Two other models alternated their answers depending on the climate estimates used, and a sixth model predicted an increase in habitat suitability. Policy makers and stakeholders should take this uncertainty into account and play it safe in securing the future of Kangaskhan.

Aside from exposing uncertainties about the long-term survival of Kangaskhan, research has also shed light on how scientists can calculate the biases associated with species distribution models. Each of these models have some degree of bias and uncertainty depending on the decisions made in the modeling process. For example, when predicting the effects of climate change, the amount of future CO2 emissions must be taken into account. However, it can be difficult to estimate because it is based on human behavior. Differences in these estimates can interact with other aspects of the modeling process, leading to biases in predictions about how climate change will affect threatened and endangered species. Scientists are familiar with these prejudices, but have never found a way to measure them.

“We found that we can determine the level of bias with a simple statistical test,” said Dr. Warren. “In doing so, we found that some of these models can be so biased that the data doesn’t have much of an impact on their results. The conclusion was drawn based on the design of the study, regardless of what the data actually showed,” he told Dr. Warren.

In addition to the Kangaskhan, researchers showed similar biases for these models by re-examining a previous study that modeled 220 species of Australian mammals, as well as a study that simulated artificial organisms, to understand how well models are estimate the environmental tolerances of species. By exposing these prejudices, the researchers hope that they will create a safer future for Kangaskhan and the rest of the world’s biodiversity.

Dr. Warren pointed out that the study itself, while strange it may seem, will help other researchers come up with more robust estimates of species distribution. His main reason for choosing to conduct this research on a Pokemon character was to engage a wider audience on topics that conservationists need to ponder on a regular basis.

“It’s a little bit silly, but it’s also cool science,” said Dr. Warren. “Stakeholders use these models to predict a range of key ecological phenomena, from the effects of climate change to the spread of disease and invasive species. Therefore, it is important to fully understand the prejudices of the models. We have just scratched the surface of what we can do with this method, so I think this could be a useful tool for a whole range of things. “

His final point was a word of caution regarding the culture that surrounds Pokemon. “It is specifically based on overuse with the slogan ‘I have to catch them all’. The rarer they become, the more valuable they become. This is like some larger species of tuna that are critically endangered. We may have focused on climate change in this study, but for many Pokémon (and many species around the world), overexploitation should also be an issue. “

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From EurekAlert!

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