Economists following the high-frequency data on viral infections are starting to see signs that the vaccine is having positive effects on deaths and infection rates.
While they warn that the signs are preliminary, they point to two areas: the decline in the percentage of deaths caused by Covid among nursing home residents and the infection numbers that are below their model projections.
“We saw for the first time that the (actual infection rates) are below our static models, which suggests possible protection from the vaccinations,” said Matthew Harrison, director of research for the biotech industry at Morgan Stanley, in a report there Week with colleagues.
The focus on vaccinating the elderly seems to have had dramatic results at first.
Long-term care deaths peaked in January at an average of 7,000 per week. According to the COVID Tracking Project, they have since fallen to around 2,200, the lowest level since November.
“The disproportionate decreases in cases and COVID-19 deaths among residents of long-term care facilities that have already vaccinated 4.6 million residents and staff suggest that vaccinations have significant real world benefits,” said Daan Struyven, Senior Economist at Goldman Sachs.
These early signs, as well as the acceleration in vaccination rates, give forecasters confidence in their prospects for a strong economic recovery this summer.
Estimated percentage of the population
Goldman Sachs
Behind this call are predictions that by then the US will achieve some kind of herd immunity, with 75% to 80% of the population either vaccinated or infected.
Forecasters warn that virus variants, American reluctance to take vaccines, and challenges with distribution and manufacturing pose risks to this bullish outlook.
Goldman’s data shows that the leading developed nations in the US lead the race for herd immunity, partly due to the steady and accelerated pace of vaccination. In large part, this is because so many Americans have been infected.
Goldman estimates that 47% of the public have either been vaccinated or infected, including 36% who have been infected.
The UK ranks second with some form of immunity at 45% of the population, but its vaccination rate is far higher.
In the US, vaccinations are back on track after disruption from storms in the south last week.
An estimated 77 million doses have been given and 15% of the population have received at least one dose, almost double what it was a month ago. Most analysts believe that the pace of vaccination will accelerate.
Morgan Stanley notes that approximately 78% of vaccines distributed were administered, an important logistical metric. It had sunk last week as a result of the storms in the south.
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