From $1 trillion in spending to F-35s, the U.S.-Saudi commitments aren’t a accomplished deal

US President Donald Trump greets Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman during an arrival ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, November 18, 2025.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

US President Donald Trump loudly announced Saudi Arabia’s $1 trillion investment commitment in the US and the possible sale of American fighter jets to Riyadh, but experts say doubts remain about whether such deals will go ahead.

Trump rolled out the red carpet for Saudi de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as he arrived in Washington on Tuesday for talks ranging from security to civil nuclear energy partnerships. The leaders signed a defense cooperation pact and held talks on the possible sale of American F-35 fighter jets to the kingdom.

The US visit of Mohammed bin Salman (or MBS as he is commonly known) was not without controversy, as it was the first time he visited the US since the murder of Saudi critic and journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

U.S. intelligence determined that the crown prince approved the operation that led to Khashoggi’s death at a Saudi consulate in Istanbul, but Riyadh denied any involvement in the murder.

Undeterred by global outrage over Khashoggi’s death and question marks over Saudi Arabia’s rehabilitation and invitation to the White House, Trump and MBS said they had “concluded a series of landmark agreements that deepen the U.S.-Saudi strategic partnership.”

That included Saudi Arabia’s commitment to increase $600 billion in investments in the United States to $1 trillion in May, according to a statement from the White House. The White House said the increase reflected “the growing confidence and dynamism of the United States under President Trump’s leadership.”

However, no further details were provided on the timeline for this trillion-dollar investment.

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman in the Oval Office of the White House on November 18, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Brendan Smialowski | AFP | Getty Images

A $1 trillion investment is equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s annual economic output in 2023 (of $1.07 trillion), and economists are questioning whether this level of investment would or could materialize any time soon.

“Such commitments have become permanent features of the international landscape, even when, as in the case of the EU [and it’s pledged investment in the U.S. as part of a trade deal] “There is absolutely no enforcement mechanism,” Paul Donovan, chief economist at GBS Global Wealth Management, noted on Wednesday.

“To put the Saudi promise in context, that’s almost the equivalent of an entire year’s worth of GDP.” [gross domestic product] for the kingdom. “The promise cannot therefore be kept in the short term,” he warned.

F-35

In addition to the investment commitments, Trump and MBS discussed selling F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, with the kingdom reportedly looking to buy up to 48 of the stealth fighter jets in a deal worth billions of dollars.

The president “approved a comprehensive defense sales package, including future F-35 deliveries, that strengthens the U.S. defense industrial base and ensures Saudi Arabia continues to buy Americans,” the White House said. However, no details were given on the number of aircraft sold or a time frame for their delivery.

Such a sale could prove controversial among U.S. lawmakers, whose sympathies and loyalties traditionally lie with Israel, the U.S.’s main and long-time ally in the Middle East.

Israel is currently the only country in the Middle East that has F-35s, and any sale of such advanced stealth technology to Saudi Arabia could be viewed as risky given its potential to change military and power dynamics in the restive region. For its part, the IDF is reportedly unhappy with the prospect of an F-35 deal with Saudi Arabia and warns that it would jeopardize Israel’s air superiority in the region.

Trump shrugged off those concerns, telling reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday, “We’re going to sell F-35s,” although he alluded to Israel’s dissatisfaction, noting, “This.” [Saudi Arabia] is a great ally, and Israel is a great ally.”

“I know they want you to get reduced caliber aircraft, but in my opinion both are at a level where they should be leaders,” he added.

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35 fighter aircraft lands at the former Roosevelt Roads military base in Ceiba, Puerto Rico, September 30, 2025.

Ricardo Arduengo | Reuters

Analysts say handing over F-35s to Saudi Arabia before the signing of the Abraham Accords, thereby normalizing relations with Israel, would be too far-reaching a reward for Riyadh.

“Saudi Arabia is an important U.S. security partner, and increased bilateral defense cooperation can advance shared interests and support efforts to build a regional security architecture that more effectively deters and combats aggression,” Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said in an analysis.

“However, before providing Riyadh with the F-35, Washington should address concerns surrounding Riyadh’s relations with China, abide by the law regarding Israel’s qualitative military strength, and demand that Saudi Arabia first normalize relations with Israel.”

“Long way” to supply

Continued and deep-rooted differences over a two-state solution could give the White House reason to hesitate on delivering F-35s to Saudi Arabia, analysts said.

“It’s one thing to announce big deals. It’s one thing to announce that Saudi Arabia will be allowed to buy the F-35, this advanced stealth fighter, but it’s another thing to actually have planes landing and taking off from Saudi airstrips,” Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told CNBC on Wednesday.

“And between here and there, there’s a lot of detail. And when you get into the details of who’s going to transfer what technology and when, then Congress – which I think, to be fair, is a little more friendly towards Israel than Saudi Arabia – will have some input.”

“That’s not to say that this deal won’t happen, because of course Israel has also suffered some setbacks in its public image, but I think there’s probably still quite a long way to go between where we are and where we get to,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”