Volunteers load boxes of food into cars during an event hosted by the Community FoodBank of New Jersey in partnership with Bergen County to provide emergency food assistance to federal employees and SNAP recipients during the U.S. government shutdown in Leonia, New Jersey, U.S., Nov. 6, 2025.
Mike Fresh | Reuters
Concerns about the government shutdown increased in early November, pushing consumer sentiment to its lowest level in more than three years and just shy of its lowest level ever, according to a University of Michigan survey released Friday.
The university’s monthly consumer sentiment index came in at 50.3 for the month, down 6.2% from the previous month and about 30% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected 53.0 after 53.6 in October. The last time sentiment was this low was in June 2022, when inflation hovered around its highest level in 40 years. November’s figure was the second lowest since at least 1978.
Concerns about the ongoing standoff in Washington outpaced consumer fears and outweighed the boost in sentiment from new record highs in stock prices, said Joanne Hsu, survey director.
“As the federal government shutdown drags on for more than a month, consumers are now voicing concerns about potential negative impacts on the economy,” Hsu said. “The decline in sentiment this month was widespread across the population and was evident across age, income and political affiliation.”
Other measures in the survey painted a similar picture.
The current conditions index fell to 52.3, down nearly 11% from the previous month and the lowest reading in its history since 1951, while the measure of future expectations fell to 49.0, down 2.6%. Compared to the previous year, the two key figures fell by 18.2% and 36.3%, respectively.
“Across the economy, segments of the population are increasingly struggling with tighter financial conditions,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at consumer finance site NerdWallet. “This is certainly true for federal workers and people who rely on food assistance from the federal government. But it is also likely increasingly true for middle-income Americans.”
Inflation rates remained relatively under control, with the longer-term outlook deteriorating.
The one-year forecast rose to 4.7%, while the five-year forecast was at 3.6%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points.
With the collection and release of state economic data paused during the lockdown, measures like the Michigan Sentiment Survey are gaining traction as alternative measures of economic progress.
As with other measures, the survey found some inequality in income levels and particularly in wealth holdings. Hsu said sentiment among those with the largest stock holdings actually improved by 11%.
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