The closure meant there was no jobs report. Carlyle’s evaluation reveals that it will have been fairly dangerous

Job seekers attend the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held at the Amerant Bank Arena on September 25, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida.

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Job growth was essentially flat in September, according to data from investment giant Carlyle, which is looking to fill data gaps left by the government shutdown.

The company said its proprietary data showed job growth of just 17,000 for the month, which would be even less than the 22,000 gain in August reflected in Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

With the BLS closed and data release suspended until the standoff between Republicans and Democrats in Congress is resolved, Wall Street firms are rushing to offer alternative measures to paint a picture of where the U.S. economy is headed.

Carlyle’s data is somewhat consistent with other publications showing slow hiring growth.

Last week, payroll company ADP reported a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs, including a decline due to adjustments to BLS revisions.

Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas also reported last week that while layoffs fell in September, planned corporate hiring was at its lowest level since 2009, when the economy was still feeling the effects of the global financial crisis.

While Carlyle’s data showed poor wage growth, other economic indicators painted a better picture.

The company said underlying gross domestic product growth was 2.7% annualized in September, while three-month average business investment increased 4.8% annualized. Carlyle also reported that consumer prices for energy fell 3.8%, while non-housing services, a key data point from the Federal Reserve, rose 3.3%.

Carlyle said it derived its data from its “expansive global portfolio,” which includes 277 companies, 694 real estate investments and 730,000 employees.

Despite posting weaker employment data, Goldman Sachs recently said its “underlying job growth” tracker showed a gain of 80,000 jobs in September. Goldman also reported that the labor market is loosening, meaning there are more workers than jobs at levels not seen in 10 years.

A New York Fed survey released on Monday suggested continued concerns about the state of the labor market.

The central bank’s monthly survey of consumer expectations for September showed the share of those expecting a higher unemployment rate in a year rose to 41.1%, up 2 percentage points from the previous month. The average probability of losing a job in the next year also rose by 0.4 percentage points to 14.9%.

However, the perceived likelihood of finding a job within three months of losing one’s current position rose to 47.4%, compared to a series low of 44.9% in August.