Eric Worrall essay
But you can totally tell you what the weather will be like in a hundred years.
Climate change forces strengths to revise the boy and girl analysis
From ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders
The Bureau of Meteorology (Bom) changes in relation to the assessment of El Niño and La Niña, the most dominant weating variability in the world.
Thanks to climate change and a quick heating trend in our oceans, the historical recording and the current analysis of the two Pacific phases has become contaminated.
El Niño, the warm episode, is wrongly observed while the cool state of La Niña has the risk of being undetected.
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The definition of the BOM for each phase contains indicators both from the atmosphere as well as from the sea and the following Nino3.4 values:
- El Niño if waters are at least 0.8 ° C above average.
- Neutral if waters are on average within 0.8 ° C.
- La niña if waters are at least 0.8 ° C below average.
While this system was precise when the earth’s climate was stable, it is no longer suitable for the purpose in a warming world.
The problem for meteorological agencies is that the true driver of weather variability is not the temperature of Niño3.4 – but a temperature difference between the western Pacific and the Niño3.4 region.
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Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-09/climate-cange-prompts-bom-el-nino-nina-analysis-overb
Further down in the article, the BOM claims to find a new index for the persecution of El Nino and La Nina, which “is not compared with a 30-year-baseline average, and is relative to the current tropical average temperature.”
This new methodology seems a bit lazy. In view of the most important question, the difference between the West Pacific region and the Niño3.4 region, why can’t someone charter a few boats and carry out some direct temperature measurements from relevant parts of the ocean? Or pay for a few additional Argo buoy?
If the problem is that the BOM does not have the budget for such field measurements, you can certainly enter into a strong budget for a budget – billions of dollars of Australian, Asian and southern, central and North American agriculture depend on answering the question: “Will it rain?”.
I think the time will show whether this new climate model model model model model is improving the ability of the BOM to forecast the weather.
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