In response to S&P International, international electrical automobile gross sales are anticipated to extend by 30% in 2025

While trade wars, tariffs and fluctuating subsidies are entirely predictable for the automotive industry in 2025, global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to continue to grow significantly next year, according to S&P Global Mobility.

“2025 is expected to be a challenging year for the automotive industry as key regional demand factors limit demand potential and the new U.S. administration creates new uncertainty from day one,” said Colin Couchman, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting at S&P Global Mobility.

In the US, the new Trump administration reportedly plans to eliminate the $7,500 tax incentive when purchasing or leasing an electric vehicle, as well as other measures that support both the manufacturing and sales of electric vehicles.

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In addition, Trump wants to impose high tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China, among others. The affected countries are expected to take countermeasures with their own tariffs.

However, despite these negative factors, electric vehicles remain an “important automotive growth sector” worldwide. S&P says incentive programs in China, Asia and Europe will continue to support electric vehicles for the foreseeable future.

S&P forecasts global electric vehicle sales will reach 15.1 million units in 2025, up 30% from an estimated 11.6 million units in 2024. Electric vehicle market share is expected to increase to 16.7% of global light vehicle sales, up from 13.2% in 2024.

China leads the way with an expected increase of 26.6 million electric vehicles in 2025, up 3% from 2024 levels, led by companies such as BYD, Changan and Tesla. The market share of electric vehicles is expected to reach 29.7% of China's vehicle sales.

Electric vehicle sales are also expected to grow strongly next year in India and Japan.

Even in the U.S., electric vehicle market share is expected to continue growing over 2024, surpassing the 10 percent mark to reach 11.2 percent of total vehicle sales, S&P says.

While Trump's policies are “predictably unpredictable,” S&P said deregulation should still create a tailwind for the North American auto industry.

Additionally, California has indicated that it will seek to revive state tax rebates for electric vehicles if the Trump administration eliminates federal incentives. Cumulative electric vehicle sales in California exceeded 2 million units in the third quarter, or nearly 40% of total U.S. electric vehicle sales.