A foreign trade container ship leaves the dock at Qingdao Port in Qingdao, China, June 7, 2024.
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China's exports and imports both fell short of expectations in November, data from the country's customs agency showed on Tuesday, fueling concerns about the health of China's economy as consumer demand remains sluggish and tariff threats loom.
Import data surprised with a 3.9% decline, the largest decline since September 2023. Analysts had expected imports to rise 0.3%.
Exports rose 6.7% year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms, well below the 12.7% growth in the previous month. Analysts had expected exports to rise 8.5% from a year earlier in a Reuters poll in November.
However, export volumes are expected to pick up again in the coming months, said Bruce Pang, chief Greater China economist at JLL, as exporters are incentivized to speed up shipments ahead of possible tariff increases.
China's exports to all major trading partners – the United States, the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – rose in November compared to a year ago.
According to CNBC's analysis of official data, exports to ASEAN countries increased the most, by almost 15%. Imports from ASEAN fell 3%. China's exports to the US rose 8% year-on-year, while imports fell over 11%.
The country's exports to the European Union rose 7.2%, while imports fell 6.5% year-on-year.
China's exports to Russia fell 2.5%, while imports fell 6.5%.
Exports in U.S. dollar terms rose 5.4% year-to-date to $3.24 trillion, while imports rose 1.2% year-on-year to $2.36 trillion, according to customs data released Tuesday .
Exports were a rare bright spot for the world's second-largest economy, which has been plagued by weak domestic consumption and a prolonged downturn in the real estate market.
The November trade data came a day after China's top leadership pledged to step up monetary and fiscal stimulus to boost growth next year and pledged “unconventional countercyclical adjustments” to boost domestic consumer demand.
Export growth could continue to pick up through early 2025 as U.S. importers continue to “push” Chinese purchases, said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank, pointing out that there could be “a decline in the second half of the year.” next year as US tariffs bite.
Manufacturing activity in the country increased for a second straight month in November, with the official purchasing managers' index rising to 50.3, as Beijing's existing stimulus measures helped boost certain aspects of the struggling economy.
However, domestic demand remained weak. Official data on Monday showed that consumer inflation in China fell to its lowest level in five months in November, rising 0.2% from a year earlier.
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